Unfamiliar problem plaguing Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez as offense sputters

While some believed that there could be an offensive dip for the Houston Astros in 2025, most still assumed that they would get plenty of production from their lineup. Unfortunately, losing both Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, has the Astros hitting just .219 as a team and a collective 88 wRC+. There are a number of culprits, but few stand out as much as Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez has certainly endured his fair share of slumps before, but the start of the season has still been rather jarring given how consistent the Astros slugger typically performs at the plate. As of Thursday, Alvarez owns a mediocre 99 wRC+, that is getting a boost thanks to the best walk rate of his career. For player who's usually in the 150-plus wRC+ range, seeing him muster a meager .224 batting average with only two homers—cue the reverse jinx—through 17 games doesn't feel right.

Is Alvarez hurt? Has his approach at the plate changed in any way? Not exactly. The answer is actually incredibly simple, but begs some more complex questions.

Yordan Alvarez's struggles with fastball should have Astros fans puzzled and concerned

Much of Alvarez's batting profile this season looks good, and he remains among the game's elites in bat speed, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Alvarez still grades out well in terms of quality of contact, and while he's chasing pitches out of the strike zone more often these days, that was also true last season when he was one of the more feared hitters in baseball.

A closer look shows a stranger problem. Going back to 2019, Alvarez has feasted on fastballs, and the majority of his home runs throughout his career have come off of heaters. This makes sense given Alvarez's above-average pitch recognition combined with his bat speed. It's also a big reason why he's thrived in this new age where velocity is king.

The problem, however, is that Alvarez is only hitting .179 and slugging .282 against fastballs this year, but his performance against other pitch types has remained roughly the same. That's almost a 50% drop from his career norms.

This is an incredibly small sample size and he's only seen 185 fastballs this season. This may be as simple as Alvarez just not having his timing down yet. But it's worth keeping an eye on. Being unable to square up fastballs can be an indication of mechanical issues or even injury concerns that could cause issues all season long without intervention.

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