This Astros stat looks terrible, but it actually is a great sign for Houston’s chances in 2026

When the season started, the Houston Astros had one big problem, and it wasn’t offense. Yordan Alvarez was busy reminding the world that he’s the best hitter alive. The lineup was leading the way but the pitching staff was a tire fire that had them buried in the AL West basement before Arbor Day. 

National writers had almost finished the obituary on the 2026 Astros by Mother’s Day. Now we’re into July, and the script has completely flipped. The bats have gone mostly quiet, but the Astros started winning and kept winning. And if you’re an Astros fan, in a weird way, that’s great news for the rest of the year.

The Astros offense cratered in June, and Houston kept winning anyway

The June stats sure do look ugly on paper. The Astros’ offense ranked 19th in wRC+, 21st in average, 20th in OBP, 17th in SLG, and 15th in runs. Okay, some aren’t that ugly. But for a team that was supposed to hit, and was built to hit its way through a broken rotation, those numbers easily could have been a part of a losing month that led to them reversing course and selling at the deadline. 

But they went 16-11 in June. Now, it’s fair to note that they were outscored for the month, but that’s because the offense wasn’t saving the day. They have climbed all the way back into the division race, entering July just two games out of first place in the AL West. At one point, they were even sitting in a playoff spot. They had their worst offensive stretch of the year and still won. That’s huge.

Let’s think about what changed. When the offense was putting up elite numbers and the pitching couldn’t get out of its own way, the Astros went 12-20. That was scary. The best unit was maxed out, and it still wasn’t enough. But June was the exact opposite (May, too, to a lesser extent). The pitching was part of why they won.

It starts with the return of Hunter Brown, who made three June starts and posted a 2.45 ERA. Tatsuya Imai certainly wasn’t perfect, but he really only had one bad start the whole month, and the Astros scored nine in the first in that game. Peter Lambert has continued to pitch well. Josh Hader came back and has been nearly untouchable. And the bullpen, the same group that started the year as one of the worst units in baseball, had the third-best ERA in the sport in June.

That’s more than something held together with timely hits, though some of it was that. It’s a pitching staff starting to turn into what was envisioned when the team was put together this winter. Bats slump and un-slump, somewhat on their own, but pitching is tough to fix. A rotation and bullpen getting healthy and rounding into form tends to stick.

And that brings us back to the struggling offense. This isn’t a team with a talent problem. It’s a team with a good group of hitters having a rough month. Alvarez is playing like an MVP. Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes also had monster Junes, but guys like Christian Walker, Cam Smith, Yainer Diaz, and, yes, Jose Altuve mostly have track records that show they should be better. Smith is the one who doesn’t really have that track record, but he balances it with both upside and a history of showing up and getting hot.

So do the math on the upside. Houston just went 16-11 (after going 15-14 in May) with a rough month offensively. If the offense simply climbs back to where the personnel says it should be and the arms hold, you’re looking at a team actually firing on all cylinders for the first time this year. The floor of the roster came up in June, but the ceiling hasn’t been touched.

That doesn’t mean canceling all October plans or getting ready for a parade. The team is still under .500 more than halfway through the year. Winning while getting outscored has a way of correcting itself, one way or another. The back of the rotation still has questions, and Dana Brown still has a job to save. The front office has to decide whether to buy into an extremely winnable division. Those are real caveats, and to pretend otherwise would be silly. 

But it’s hard to argue with a winning month. The Astros (barely) survived their pitching falling apart, and now they’ve survived their offense struggling. A team that can win multiple ways, even when it’s just one way at a time, can be far more dangerous than one that needs everything to click. The numbers in June don’t look great, but they suggest the hardest part might be behind you.

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