Astros' trade deadline direction couldn't be any clearer with experts' latest intel

If you believe in the idea of other universes, there’s one where the Houston Astros spend the next few weeks gauging the trade market and treating the August 3 MLB trade deadline as a chance to reset and maybe even rebuild a little. They’re under .500 with a farm system chewed down to the nubs, and employ a general manager in the last year of his deal. That’s the recipe that generally leads to a teardown.

Jeff Passan has floated the idea that Jeremy Peña is the best player who could be moved. Buster Olney lumped Dana Brown in with the most-pressured executives in the sport and noted that with the pieces the Astros off, they could do quite well in a fire sale. Looking at The Athletic’s big board, the Astros have four of the top-20 trade pieces. This could be a big opportunity to really boost the future. And yet… 

Astros' trade deadline approach: buyers, not sellers, regardless of the record

All the reports indicate that the Astros plan to be buyers. They’ll focus on a left-handed hitting outfielder and bullpen help mostly. Houston has reportedly told other clubs that they’re wasting any time talking about Peña and Christian Walker. The Yankees and Braves have both poked around on Peña, but the answer is a flat no. Houston has set its direction and has made sure everyone in the game has heard it.

All of that tracks with what Brown told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart when he ran down the same wish list. He expects the rotation to fix itself with returns from injury. There’s no ambiguity from the general manager. Whether it’s the smart move is a different conversation, but nobody can accuse the front office of hiding the plan.

The math may not be great, but the logic is at least consistent. Jim Crane has been clear that he does not want to bottom out while Brown and Joe Espada are both clinging to their jobs. In addition, the path to a playoff spot in the American League and even a division title in the AL West isn’t hard to envision. With the Astros hovering close enough to .500, they’re only a few good days away from being right there. The bar is so low that maybe adding isn’t the wrong play, though it’s the sell-high opportunity that Olney’s sources see slipping away.

There’s an argument between a bat and a reliever or three as the loudest need, but the offense is heavily right-handed. Yordan Alvarez is the only lefty regular with Joey Loperfido and Taylor Trammell functioning in some platoon capacity as well. Adding a lefty would balance the order against righties, and it allows Houston to keep Alvarez in the DH spot rather than having to put him in a corner. Looking at The Athletic's board, they list Jarren Duran, Mickey Moniak, JJ Bleday, Trevor Larnach, and Willi Castro (he’s a switch hitter, but it works) as the obvious options, but there are others.

The bullpen is a bit trickier. Josh Hader is back and has been excellent. Bryan King is pitching well in a setup role. But the rest is a little tricky. Steven Okert has been good, but you wonder if it can last. Bryan Abreu had been pitching better, but has struggled again recently. It gets thin fast for this team. The problem is that the rest of the league knows it, and the reliever market is pretty shallow. Aroldis Chapman is out there as an elite arm, but otherwise, it’s a lot of risk.

In the rotation, the “need” gets a little fuzzy. Houston missed Hunter Brown badly, but he’s back and was good in his first start, but struggled with command in his second. Cristian Javier and Ronel Blanco are working their way back. They may look at internal replacements as their deadline acquisition, but that’s tough to count on. Look no further than Brown. He needed 85 pitches to get through three innings in Toronto. The command just wasn’t there. That sometimes happens in returns from injuries. Of course, the Astros don’t have the prospect capital to do too much on that front, so they’re in a tough spot there.

Stack it all up, and the likeliest outcome is a modest, but targeted, deadline rather than a splashy one. They’re likely to find a lefty bat. Larnach seems to be a good fit there. Maybe they can get a leverage reliever, and maybe a back-end starter to help cover innings. It’s not nothing, and we’ve seen this team come back from a big deficit to win a division as recently as two years ago. The only question left is whether “clear” and “correct” are the same thing.

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