Spencer Arrighetti could be forcing Astros into a decision they can’t delay

Spencer Arrighetti made his first start of the year for the Houston Astros this week and it was quite the season debut. The right-hander went six innings, threw over 100 pitches, and allowed just one run on two hits while striking out 10 batters. The Astros now have an important question to answer, and they'll need to do so in short order. Is Arrighetti worthy of a contract extension?

The immediate reaction from some of the Houston faithful will inevitably cite Hunter Brown as the Astros player who's most deserving of an extension. And while that may be true, it's also unlikely.

The Astros may have already missed their window to negotiate a long-term deal with Brown, and after finishing among the top-3 finalists for the Cy Young Award last season, it's doubtful that he'll be willing to discuss a long-term deal (unless Houston is willing to offer him a market value contract).

Are the Astros ready to take a gamble on Spencer Arrighetti?

Meanwhile, Arrighetti is the perfect high-upside arm the Astros should be looking to hitch their wagon to moving forward. He's still just 26 years old, pre-arbitration eligible, and has the chance to be a key piece of their rotation moving forward.

To be clear, an Arrighetti extension would be nowhere close to the type of money it would take to sign Brown to a long-term deal. And that's the point. Arrighetti has the upside to be a solid No. 2 starter, and at worse a No. 3, and those arms are costing teams a pretty penny nowadays on the open market.

Two years ago, Luis Severino signed a three-year, $67 million deal with the Athletics in 2024, and former Astros hurler Yusei Kikuchi inked a similar contract (three-year, $63.6 million) with the Angels. Pitchers like Shōta Imanaga, Brandon Woodruff, and Zac Gallen all signed qualifying offers worth over $22 million this past winter, but none of them are considered the ace of the staff.

If the Astros were interested in signing Arrighetti to a multi-year extension, the five-year, $45 million contract Brandon Pfaadt signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks last year could be a nice comp. Tanner Bibee signed a five-year extension with the Cleveland Guardians worth $48 million in 2025, and the Boston Red Sox secured Brayan Bello's services with a six-year, $55 million deal in 2024. Arrighetti arguably fits somewhere alongside one of these three pitchers.

Signing Arrighetti would be a calculated risk. The Astros saw such a move backfire after securing Lance McCullers Jr. to a five-year extension that's finally run its course this season. But after watching Framber Valdez leave for free agency this past winter, and knowing that Brown won't be far behind, it'll be difficult for Astros GM Dana Brown to sit idly by and not sign Arrighetti to a long-term deal if he continues to pitch well this season.

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