Rumored Astros offseason trade target comes with a number of red flags

The Houston Astros' starting rotation likely will have a different look at the top, with the expectation that Framber Valdez will be pitching elsewhere in 2026. While the Astros haven't been ruled out as a potential suitor for Valdez, money could complicate their offseason. The Astros don't have much flexibility for major free-agent signings, which is why the trade market may be how they go about addressing their need for a top-of-the-rotation arm.

It's shaping up to be an offseason to be in the trade market for a starting pitcher, considering the likes of Tarik Skubal, Hunter Greene, and Freddy Peralta could all be available. That was the premise of Jim Bowden's preview of the top 10 players most likely to be traded this winter.

The Athletic's MLB insider (subscription required) listed Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara as someone who could be traded this offseason, and the Astros get a mention as a potential trade partner.

Astros’ potential trade move comes with some worrying baggage

Alcantara was one of the more polarizing names available at the MLB trade deadline this past season, and that figures to be the case this offseason. When healthy, Alcantara has had the appearance of being one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Alcantara won the National League Cy Young Award in 2022 while posting a 2.28 ERA and tallying 207 strikeouts.

The concern is that Alcantara spent the opening months of the 2025 season looking like one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. It was his return season from Tommy John surgery, and he posted a 7.22 ERA during the first half. Earning $17 million in 2026 with a $21 million club option for 2027, trading for Alcantara at the deadline would have been a gamble. Especially when the Marlins were shopping him like a Cy Young award candidate.

The silver lining is that Alcantara finished the 2025 season on a strong note, posting an ERA of 3.33 in his final 83 and 2/3 innings pitched while striking out over 21% of the hitters he faced. Still not the numbers he posted during his Cy Young campaign, but an improvement.

Even if the Astros believe they can ensure his first-half struggles from last season don't return, there are two things likely preventing a trade. The Astros could be creative, having nearly $27 million in space to work with this offseason, but absorbing Alcantara's contract would eat a significant portion of that.

Meanwhile, with the idea that Alcantara comes with two years of control, the Marlins likely won't be in a rush to move him this offseason. The Astros also don't have the prospect capital to change Miami's mind.