3) New York Yankees
It's easy to forget after all of the hoopla over a 120-win pace, but the Yankees massively overachieved for much of last season. Their 99 wins were 11 games more than offseason projections, but they entered the season with multiple holes. Those holes still exist.
Unless Aaron Judge somehow tops his 62 home run season, I don't see this team making a run. Carlos Rodon was a huge signing, but he's also never been healthy for a playoff push and has lingering durability questions. So does Nestor Cortes. So does Frankie Montas. Luis Severino has thrown 108 innings...since 2019. Gerrit Cole is the only proven horse in the rotation.
Best rotation in baseball? Maybe if you play MLB the Show on easy difficulty and turn injuries off.
Beyond that, they still have no left fielder. Josh Donaldson is still starting at third base. They have three shortstops, and appear committed to the worst option of the three.
If Judge doesn't hit 65 home runs, this team won't score. And if even one injury strikes the rotation, their season may very well be sunk. It's always fun beating the doors off New York, but there are two teams Houston will be more likely to see in the ALCS.