Ranking the Most Likely Opponents for the Astros in the ALCS

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Taking a look at the most likely ALCS opponents for the Astros

Death. Taxes. The Astros in the ALCS. Isn't that how the old saying goes?

With six straight trips to the ALCS under their belt, it's become an all but foregone conclusion that Houston will play for the American League pennant each season. We previously ranked their most likely World Series opponents, but now we will take a look at the most likely foes they'll have to take down for a third consecutive trip to the Fall Classic.

Division Series - New York Yankees v Cleveland Guardians - Game Three / Dylan Buell/GettyImages

#4 Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have perennially been a group of scrappers built around an AL MVP candidate in José Ramírez and a lights-out pitching staff. Their manager, Terry Francona, is one of the most successful managers of all-time.

A couple of key off-season signings could help Cleveland progress from finding ways to push runs across to scoring in bunches. Josh Bell was their prized free agent signing, and should provide some much needed protection for Ramírez. Mike Zunino has a chance to regain his 2021 form after an injury-shortened 2022. He's only one-year removed from an All-Star nod and an .860 OPS. Once top prospect Bo Naylor comes up, Cleveland's offense should be night and day different from last season.

As always, they'll have no issues keeping runs off the board, with a deep rotation led by Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie. Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak hold down the fort in what should be a dominant bullpen.

If Cleveland's signings pan out and they score enough runs, don't be surprised if they find themselves in an ALCS showdown with Houston.

Aaron Judge Press Conference / Dustin Satloff/GettyImages

3) New York Yankees

It's easy to forget after all of the hoopla over a 120-win pace, but the Yankees massively overachieved for much of last season. Their 99 wins were 11 games more than offseason projections, but they entered the season with multiple holes. Those holes still exist.

Unless Aaron Judge somehow tops his 62 home run season, I don't see this team making a run. Carlos Rodon was a huge signing, but he's also never been healthy for a playoff push and has lingering durability questions. So does Nestor Cortes. So does Frankie Montas. Luis Severino has thrown 108 innings...since 2019. Gerrit Cole is the only proven horse in the rotation.

Best rotation in baseball? Maybe if you play MLB the Show on easy difficulty and turn injuries off.

Beyond that, they still have no left fielder. Josh Donaldson is still starting at third base. They have three shortstops, and appear committed to the worst option of the three.

If Judge doesn't hit 65 home runs, this team won't score. And if even one injury strikes the rotation, their season may very well be sunk. It's always fun beating the doors off New York, but there are two teams Houston will be more likely to see in the ALCS.

Division Series - Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners - Game Three / Steph Chambers/GettyImages

#2 Seattle Mariners

The Astros toughest opponent en route to a World Series may very well have been their ALDS opponent, the Seattle Mariners. The upstart Mariners may have been swept, but they led or were tied almost the entirety of the series. It took a historic Yordan walk-off in Game 1 to overcome a 7-3 deficit.

Seattle led into the sixth in Game 2 before Yordan again put the Astros ahead on a two-run shot. And who can forget the 18-inning marathon in which Seattle kept Houston's vaunted lineup scoreless through 17 lineups.

These guys were good, and this year they are even better. Julio Rodríguez is still at the top of the lineup, and he's got more than just Ty France and Cal Raleigh behind him. The Mariners addressed their biggest area of need when they acquired Teoscar Hernández to play a corner outfield spot, traded for Kolten Wong to play second base and signed AJ Pollock.

They have three rotation pieces that should be very, very good in Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Robbie Ray is a bit of a question mark depending on who shows up, and Marco Gonzales is there to eat innings, but their front office has been aggressive the last couple of seasons, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they land another starter headed into October.

Their bullpen is full of flamethrowers, especially Andrés Muñoz. Seattle is entirely capable of seeing their AL West foe in the ALCS. Only one team is more likely to reach the ALCS, and it's the team Seattle knocked off in the Wild Card round.

Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays / Mark Blinch/GettyImages

#1 Toronto Blue Jays

George Springer is no stranger to ALCS games in Minute Maid Park. If Toronto stays healthy this year, he'll be back in the familiar confines.

Toronto was a bit of a letdown in 2022, but should finish atop the AL East in 2023. Toronto will bash their way past the opposition with just enough pitching and a top-level defense to keep runs off the board.

George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr. is as fearsome of a 1-3 as you'll find in any lineup. They'll add Daulton Varsho's power, Brandon Belt's playoff pedigree (a Carlos Beltran/Brian McCann esque signing) and Kevin Kiermaier's elite defense to their lineup. An outfield defense of Springer, Varsho and Kiermaier will make extra base hits all but impossible fo rthe opposition.

Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassit are atop the rotation, followed by José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

Their bullpen is solid, and the acquisiton of Erik Swanson will bolster a group that sorely needed it. If Chad Green can bounce back from Tommy John in time for October, he's a huge weapon for them.

Get your passports out. The Toronto Blue Jays and your Houston Astros will square off in the 2023 ALCS.

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