Astros' trade deadline pursuit of a superstar could have disastrous consequences

It's well known that the Houston Astros would love to upgrade the starting rotation at the MLB trade deadline. With so many injuries, Astros' GM Dana Brown has made no bones about it — Houston will be looking to add at least one starter before the July 30 bell rings.

But first base is another area that Houston would like to upgrade before making a playoff push during the second half of the 2024 season. While it sounds as if Pete Alonso is staying put in the Big Apple, there's a chance (albeit a small one) that the Toronto Blue Jays could have a change of heart and trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero would be a tremendous acquisition for the Astros, but by adding a superstar like Vladdy Jr., Houston will create a problem for itself. Adding a big-name will bring it a big contract along with it, and could eventually spell the end for Kyle Tucker in Houston.

Adding a superstar like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would mean the Astros likely lose Kyle Tucker

There are already concerns about how Houston will attack with the MLB trade deadline. The Astros are less than $5 million in payroll away from the next tier of the luxury tax, and most observers around the organization believe Houston will not cross that threshold.

But if Astros owner Jim Crane does indeed decide to go for broke this season and acquire a stud like Guerrero to help bolster Houston's chances of winning it all, the payroll commitment heading into 2025 and beyond becomes quite arduous.

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Houston's current payroll is sitting just around $254 million. While Justin Verlander's contract comes off the books next year and it's unlikely that the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman, Houston still has a lot of money committed to the likes of Jose Altuve, Josh Hader, and Lance McCullers Jr., not to mention the arbitration raises due to players like Tucker, Framber Valdez, Jeremy Peña, and Bryan Abreu.

So not only would targeting a player like Guerrero be a major hit to the Astros' farm system, it would also lessen the likelihood of a long-term deal with Tucker. Both outcomes are less than ideal, especially with other options to upgrade the position available without the gargantuan price tag.

Houston has survived the horrid start to the 2024 season and the disaster that was Jose Abreu at first base. While the Astros should unequivocally look at upgrading first base before the trade deadline expires, snagging a big-name like Vladdy Jr. seems unnecessary.

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