Astros’ fatal flaw could doom them at this year’s trade deadline

By all accounts, the Houston Astros want to be active at the trade deadline. In addition to the lingering speculation that the Astros would like to acquire a first baseman, their rotation has been decimated by injuries and should remain a priority even if/when Justin Verlander returns.

So far, the Astros have talked a big game ahead of the trade deadline and have been connected to some of the bigger potential names on the market. While prying away Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from Toronto could prove difficult this year and it sounds like the Mets will keep Pete Alonso, that Houston is even entertaining swinging big has Astros fans excited for the potential action at the deadline.

Unfortunately, fans may want to temper their expectations. While Dana Brown and the front office may WANT to make an impact move or two at the deadline, there is no shortage of concern that the Astros simply don't have the prospect capital or payroll room to get such a deal done.

Astros' shallow farm system and bloated payroll spell trouble ahead of the trade deadline

Here is the fundamental problem that Houston faces over the next week. They have a farm system that lacks much depth, which means the Astros either have to be willing to part with Joey Loperfido, Jacob Melton, and/or Brice Matthews for a big deal, which could cause real problems for them in the future, or sit out the top end of the market. Even if they found a team that was willing to take a lesser package in exchange for salary relief, Houston's proximity to the upper tiers of the luxury tax makes that plan even more dubious and less likely.

There will be some that say, "Why doesn't Houston just trade some of the players they just drafted?". The not-fun-at-all answer is because they can't.

After the Padres found a loophole to trade Trea Turner shortly after he was drafted, MLB closed that loophole by making players ineligible to be traded until after the World Series in the year they are drafted. They also cannot be included in any trades before that even as a "player to be named later". Even if the Astros wanted to trade Walker Janek (their first-round pick this year), it simply isn't an option.

All this means that the Astros are in quite the pickle ahead of the trade deadline. If they could find a team willing to take on Rafael Montero's horror show of a contract, that would help. However, that would also probably further eat into their pool of minor leaguers in order to make that happen. The best bet right now is that Houston will have to settle for rental options to fill gaps on their roster and hope that their internal options can get healthy and/or step up. It may be the best and only option they have.

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