Astros’ decision on Justin Verlander’s playing time seems to forecast playoff intentions

By now, Houston Astros fans have accepted the fact that the version of Justin Verlander they had grown accustomed to is a thing of the past. After being arguably the best pitcher in baseball from 2018-2022, including winning a pair of Cy Young Awards, Verlander proved himself a very solid contributor after last year's trade that brought him back to Houston. Unfortunately, his injury issues in 2024 have turned him into a shadow of his former self. Things have been so bad that Verlander's spot on the Astros' playoff roster has become anything but certain. This has become an unavoidable reality.

We know how these things can go. The numbers and eye test can say with certainty that a guy isn't good enough to run out there, but teams too often retreat to "he is a veteran with experience" when these sorts of playoff roster decisions actually get made. We have already seen this narrative start when Hall of Famer John Smoltz went to bat for Verlander earlier in September.

However, we may have gotten a clue as to the Astros' plans this week, as Verlander will be starting this weekend against the Guardians.

Justin Verlander starting in meaningless end of season series against Guardians does not bode well for his Astros playoff roster chances

The logic here is pretty simple. By starting on Saturday, there is virtually no chance that Verlander can play in the AL Wild Card round, even if it goes the full three games. Taking that nugget on top of all of the chatter that Houston seems to be leaning away from carrying him on the playoff roster, and it paints a pretty clear picture. Having Verlander make his potential last start on the road in Cleveland isn't ideal, but the Astros clearly are trying to line up their rotation for the playoffs, and it is hard to see how Verlander could fit in those plans (at least, as far as the immediate best-of-three).

This could be a sad end to what has largely been a great run for Verlander with the Astros. Unfortunately, Verlander has been candid that he came back too soon from his neck injury, and the results have supported that. Since returning to the Astros from the IL on August 21, Verlander has put up a gruesome 8.89 ERA with noticeable downturns in his stuff and peripherals along the way. Taking his name and track record out of it, playing him in a meaningless series on the season's final weekend makes a lot of sense if the team no longer trusts him when it counts.

Houston's decision to start Verlander this weekend doesn't COMPLETELY close the door on Verlander showing up in the postseason. While the Wild Card round seems near impossible and a potential ALDS appearance unlikely, given that it is a five-game series at best, the scenario changes once the seven-game series start. Carrying Verlander in that scenario would require Houston to remain steadfast in not starting Ronel Blanco, but it could realistically happen that way. Again, we know how these things go a lot of the time.

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