Nolan Arenado's no-trade clause is looking like a blessing for the Astros

The Houston Astros were in deep negotiations with the St. Louis Cardinals this past offseason and have every intention of trading for eight-time All-Star Nolan Arenado. But Arenado turned his nose up to the Astros and exercised the no-trade clause in his contract, preferring to remain in St. Louis. Things couldn't have worked out better for the Astros.

This past offseason in Houston was centered around the Astros' search for a third baseman. While the team made efforts to bring back Alex Bregman, the two-time All-Star decided to spurn the Astros and signed with the Boston Red Sox. That left a gaping hole at the hot corner, and Houston made an attempt to trade for Arenado.

Wanting to see how the free agent market played out, Arenado declined Houston's efforts to pull off a blockbuster, and the Astros decided to roll the dice with Isaac Paredes at third base. Through the first one-third of the 2025 season, it looks like Houston made the decision.

Nolan Arenado's no-trade clause is looking like a blessing for the Astros

Not only is Arenado playing well-below the standard he's set for himself in St. Louis, but Paredes is neck-and-neck with Jeremy Peña for the Astros' MVP to start the 2025 season. Arenado is hitting .227/.298/.370 with only six home runs on the season.

The advanced metrics dropped off from 2023 to 2024, but those numbers have absolutely collapsed in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, Arenado is in the 30th percentile or lower in expected batting average, expected slugging, barrel rate, hard hit rate, and chase rate. While his defense is still among the best at the position, it hardly makes up for his below-average performance at the dish.

On the flip side, Paredes has been slugging his way into the hearts of Astros fans since his arrival in Houston. It took a couple of weeks, but once Paredes got rolling, he's become a force in the middle of the Astros lineup. The right-handed hitting Paredes has found the Crawford Boxes rather kind to his pull-heavy swing, and is hitting .252/.348/.455 with 12 homers on the year already.

There's also the tiny matter of finances that came with Arenado's rejection of Houston. The Astros would've taken on large majority of Arenado's contract, but instead have Paredes for $6.6 million this season and two more years of team control.

Houston may have wanted to trade for Arenado, but thankfully the multi-time Gold Glove Award-winner said, "Thanks, but no thanks." Houston now has the superior player in Paredes at the hot corner, some extra money in the bank, and whichever prospects St. Louis was targeting in that voided deal still in the fold. Sometimes it's the deals you don't make.

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