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On September 1, the Houston Astros had a 90.5% of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs and a 65.3% chance of winning the AL West. They weren't mortal locks by any stretch, but the odds were extremely good that Houston would be playing in October. After a disastrous sweep by Seattle over the weekend, the entire playoff picture for the Astros has changed.
After leading the AL West for much of the 2025 season, the Astros find themselves three games behind the Mariners in the division with only six games left in the season to try to make up the difference. Unless the Rockies become a real baseball team all of a sudden, the AL West is a lost cause, and the odds that the Astros make the playoffs at all have dipped to 65.6%.
However, the bigger problem is that getting swept by Seattle has put the Astros in a tie with the Guardians for the last spot in the AL playoff field period, and that is going to make things awfully tough.
Astros find themselves playing for the their 2025 playoff lives after brutal sweep
On the surface, Houston's schedule to close the season is favorable and should bolster its chances of staving off elimination. The Athletics are not playing well right now, and the Angels don't have anything to play for in the last series of the year other than pride, and that is not a team that seems to have much pride in anything at the moment.
However, the A's do have Nick Kurtz who is incredibly dangerous, and both teams are AL West foes that would love to ruin the Astros' playoff chances. Meanwhile, the Guardians are playing out of their minds at the moment and have the Tigers, who are desperate and also playing like garbage at the moment, and the Rangers this week. If you think Texas wouldn't love to help the Astros get knocked out of the postseason, you haven't been paying attention.
If the Astros handle their business this week, they will be in good shape. That will put all the pressure on the Guardians as well as the Red Sox (who are also not playing great) to hold on to their postseason spots. The division title is already lost, and now it is up to the Astros to figure out how to gather themselves again and get back to the playoffs at all.