MLB insider's Alex Bregman prediction requires Astros to ignore longstanding model

Until Alex Bregman re-signs with the Houston Astros or joins a new team this winter, his impending free agency will dominate the offseason conversation throughout H-Town. Most, if not all, Astros fans want to see Bregman brought back in 2025.

Astros fans have seen Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Gerrit Cole leave via free agency, and there's been an overarching link between their departure and Houston's front office and ownership. The Astros have continually refused to offer a contract longer than six years.

This can be a testy subject for Astros fans, as owner Jim Crane has a longstanding policy of keeping contract offers to six years or less. Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, and even Bregman (before now) have never been able to surpass a six-year deal. All signs point to that being the case for Bregman once again this offseason, and it may well be the reason the Astros' third base stalwart exits stage left this winter.

MLB insider's Alex Bregman prediction requires Astros to ignore longstanding model

MLB insider and longtime general manager Jim Bowden recently published an article for The Athletic (subscription required) with his top-45 free agents along with potential landing spots and contract projections. While Houston is mentioned alongside a few other contenders, it's the contract itself that may serve as an obstacle for a reunion between Bregman and the Astros.

Bowden ranks Bregman as the seventh-best free agent available this offseason and predicts that he'll be able to land a seven-year, $185.5 million deal. Bowden, a former GM for the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, believes that Bregman's agent will use recent contract agreements like Matt Chapman's six-year, $151 million deal with the San Francisco Giants and Xander Bogaerts' 11-year, $280 pact with the San Diego Padres as fair comps.

Both deals offer an average annual value of about $25 million, and the seven-year projection for Bregman carries an AAV of 26.5 million. The AAV is doable, but based on past history, the seven years won't be. If Bregman and his representation accept a six-year, $159 million deal, then perhaps the two sides can find common ground.

This will be a delicate negotiation, and one that Astros fans hope to see resolved relatively quickly. But in all likelihood, Juan Soto will be the first domino to topple this winter, with players like Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Anthony Santander waiting to see fallout.

More Houston Astros News and Rumors