Mike Burrows’ struggles with Astros are more than just bad luck, but solutions are lacking

When the Houston Astros arrived at spring training, team officials were thrilled that they successfully acquired Mike Burrows. Alongside fellow newcomer Tatsuya Imai, Houston honestly thought that their rotation was going to be in great shape at the start of the season. Astros fans know the rest of the story.

Not only has Imai not worked out so far, but the Astros also lost Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier to injuries. Lance McCullers Jr., to the surprise of exactly no one, has looked like a shadow of his former self. Making matters worse, Burrows has been a major letdown thus far with a 5.97 ERA through his first seven starts with the Astros.

Over at The Athletic, Astros beat writer Chandler Rome wrote over the weekend about Burrows being one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball while acknowledging some of his other shortcomings. Rome is absolutely correct about Burrows' luck, but it hasn't helped that Burrows has made a good bit of his own rotten fortune.

Mike Burrows has certainly been unlucky, but the Astros may have also ignored an important red flag

In Rome's column, he points to opposing hitters' .373 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) against Burrows, which is not only unlucky, but it’s also among the worst BABIPs against a pitcher in all of baseball. That number certainly indicates some bad luck, but Burrows' FIP (another metric that can be an indicator of a pitcher's fortune) sits at a very poor 5.19, so what gives?

Well, much of it can be boiled down to Burrows' fastballs (both his four-seam and his sinker) being pretty bad going back to his days with the Pirates. In 2025, across 96 innings, opposing hitters hit .263 against his sinker and .326 against Burrows' four-seamer, with both pitches representing the hardest contact he gave up last year.

This season, things are far worse. It is a much smaller sample, hitters are teeing off on Burrows' four-seamer to the tune of a .400 batting average, an average 93.2 mph exit velocity against, and a staggering .933 slugging percentage. Burrows' sinker has been similarly terrible, as hitters are hitting .464 against it, although his expected stats there are a bit more promising, at least.

It is absolutely true that BABIP can be a measure of luck. However, what can influence BABIP in addition to luck is opposing hitters not being fooled by a guy's worst pitch at all. If your heater isn't particularly effective AND you don't get a lot of ground balls, bad things are going to happen. That is the unfortunate situation Burrows finds himself in now. Had the Astros considered a better strategy for improving Burrows' hard stuff, they all might be in better shape right now. Instead, we have only seen one of his biggest flaws get markedly worse.

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