Jeff Passan's "perfect" offseason move confirms the Astros' 2026 payroll reality

Spending top dollar in free agency hasn't been the preferred method for the Houston Astros in recent seasons, and this offseason will likely be no different. While Dylan Cease-to-the-Astros rumors have already started, the Astros' 2026 payroll outlook makes it difficult to see how Houston can afford a top free agent this time around.

It's why the Astros weren't mentioned as a suitor for any top free agent in the USA Today's offseason predictions, and it's why ESPN's Jeff Passan points out a perfect move that avoids the top of the market.

Passan makes the case for the Astros to sign former San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King this offseason. As Passan notes, King, given his injury track record, won't be paid in the same tier as Cease or Framber Valdez this offseason, and could be within reach of what the Astros can afford while having a need at the top of their rotation.

Michael King comes with some risk, but he could be the perfect option for the Houston Astros this offseason

When healthy, King has proven to be one of the better swing-and-miss pitchers in all of baseball. While he doesn't have an overpowering fastball, he has a career strikeout rate of 27%.

With the Padres last season, a pinched nerve in his right shoulder limited him to 15 starts, and there were some indicators that he may not have been fully healthy. Still respectable, King posted a 3.44 ERA in a tick over 73 innings pitched and struck out 24.7% of the hitters he faced. His fastball velocity was slightly down in 2025, and in turn, he lost some value on the pitch. Which, in turn, made his changeup less effective.

King received a qualifying offer from the Padres, so the Astros would lose draft compensation if they were to sign the 30-year-old right-hander. That said, the Astros also stand to gain draft pick compensation once Framber Valdez signs elsewhere. Like last season, when they signed Christian Walker after losing Alex Bregman, the Astros may not be directly opposed to targeting a player with a qualifying offer attached to their profile this offseason.

The hidden benefit for the Astros is that their pitching infrastructure is known to be able to fix veteran pitchers. That could increase Houston's likelihood to avoid the pitchers at the top of this winter's free-agent class while targeting a high-ceiling option like King.