Jeff Passan’s Astros free agency update makes zero sense for Houston's payroll mess

Even elementary-level mathematicians can point to the Houston Astros' 2026 payroll outlook as the reason why they haven't exactly made headlines this offseason. With the financial goal of remaining under the first level of CBT, and having around $24 million in space, it speaks to the reason why they haven't been at the forefront of free-agent rumors.

It's why when free-agent matches connect the Astros to names like Zac Gallen or Michael King, it sounds great on paper, but it doesn't match reality. The Astros need to replace Framber Valdez at the top of their rotation, and there are a number of options available in free agency. The issue is that they don't have the money to follow through on that intention.

Astros Rumors: ESPN's free agency update is wishful thinking for Houston

ESPN's Jeff Passan offered an update on the offseason, providing temperature checks for each level of free agency as well as the trade market. The MLB insider believes the market for top-tier starting pitchers is about to warm up, and suggests that the Astros are among the teams in the mix. The pitchers Passan has in this group are Valdez, King, Gallen, and Tatsuya Imai.

Short the markets for each of these pitchers bottoming out, it's hard to paint a scenario where Houston lands one of them. On an outside chance that the Astros find a taker for Christian Walker and his bloated contract, then it will possibly become a more serious conversation.

Even more than a Walker trade, the true wild card in this situation for the Astros is Jim Crane. Crane's desire to reunite with Carlos Correa helped create the mess that Houston is facing this winter, and his decision to retain Dana Brown and Joe Espada does suggest that he wants to squeeze out one more year of contention before possibly resetting at the major league level.

If Crane wakes up one day and decides that the Astros' chips must be pushed to the middle of the table for 2026, then he may reverse course on the mandate for the front office to stay under the luxury tax. The Astros managed to stay just under the luxury tax in 2025, so if they were to go over next season, they wouldn't be faced with the added penalty of being a repeat offender.

To be clear, that shouldn't be viewed as likely scenario but with Crane, never say never.