How the Kyle Tucker trade ruined the Astros' chances of acquiring Nolan Arenado

Without question, the Houston Astros trading Kyle Tucker was painful. It might have been a necessary pain, given that extending Tucker was unlikely and Houston could really use the payroll space, but the Astros lost a really good player with the move. In seven years with the Astros, Tucker averaged a .274/.353/.516 line while being a perennial 30/30 threat. That is a bona fide star. Considering the Astros intend to compete in 2025, based on the Tucker package and the moves that followed, it's a tough loss to swallow, and can be ascribed entirely to budgetary matters.

Given that Tucker is a rental, the Astros did well with their return for him. Isaac Paredes has a swing built for playing in Houston and has a track record of performing in the big leagues. Cam Smith may not be a household name as a prospect yet, but he is a big time bat and could easily end up being the Astros' long-term replacement for Alex Bregman going forward.

However, trading Tucker to help secure their future may end up being the biggest reason why the Astros' chance to trade for Nolan Arenado fell through.

Astros trading Kyle Tucker may have soured Nolan Arenado on Houston's chances of contention

The calculus here is pretty straightforward. Without Tucker and with Bregman likely headed elsewhere, Houston is strictly worse as a team on paper in 2025 (yes, even after importing Christian Walker). According to a number of a reports, Arenado only wants to be traded to a contender given the stage of his career he is in. At the end of the day, Arenado is going to be 34 years old next year with a limited shelf life left, as good as he has been in his career.

Given that Arenado has full no-trade rights built into his contract, that calculus was likely a real problem for Houston's chances. Even with Arenado in tow, and assuming he put up a good season in 2025, that would only realistically replace Bregman's production. Paredes is a good player, but he hasn't been nearly as good as Tucker has been. Thinking that the 2025 Astros would be worse than the 2024 club that lost pretty early in the playoffs isn't a reach here.

There are a number of other potential factors in play here. Arenado could easily have other clubs he would prefer to go to, which tracks with the rumors that he would like to play for the Dodgers. He also may just prefer to have more options to pick from first before making a decision, rather than just going with the first suitor whose offer the Cardinals liked enough to advance talks towards the finish line.

However, if winning truly is Arenado's primary concern when it comes to a trade, the Astros moving Tucker may have ended up hurting their chances to land him, for better or worse.

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