How should Astros solve their third base logjam when Carlos Correa returns?

I spend my working hours worrying about literary terms like symbols, metaphors, smilies, and irony. One cannot be more ironic than looking at the Astros third base situation. One might even call it a paradox. On the one hand, the very zenith of the Dana Brown era was the deal he struck for Kyle Tucker. Isaac Paredes by himself was more than enough to make up for what Tucker was able to do in Chicago.

You add in Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith and you can see that this trade was the biggest win of the Brown era. Yet, the presence of Carlos Correa is a complicated addendum to that legacy. On face value, you could say the move has not been a financial boon for the franchise. Yes, they gave up next to nothing in player capital, but the salary outlay has complicated where the Astros are at in terms of the tax threshold, and he has given the Astros very little in eight months of baseball.

Things in life very rarely ever take place on face value. One could credibly claim that Brown had very little to do with the Correa deal. Correa was a fan favorite from the glory days and the deal was largely brokered between Jim Crane and Minnesota ownership. So, one could credibly claim that Brown shouldn't take the fall for a decision he played very little part of. That is obviously fair, but it also means that whoever the new general manager is will have the task of cleaning up behind the scenes.

Astros must find room for both Carlos Correa and Isaac Paredes in lineup

This seems so obvious that it borders on stupid to point it out, but both of these guys should be in the everyday lineup. Like I said, that much is obvious. The question comes in how you are able to do it. This is where all of these articles are intertwined throughout the offseason. If the club has a taker for Christian Walker, then that would be the most elegant solution to the problem. There is also the possibility that Jeremy Pena could be dealt for prospects. Both possibilities open up a slot for Correa to move or Paredes to move.

This is where things get interesting for the new general manager. The most elegant solution for 2027 purposes would be trading Walker and moving Paredes to first base. That is born out in the fact that Jeremy Pena is still a very productive player and the money owed to Walker could be spent on other areas of the team like the outfield or pitching staff. Obviously, things are easier said than done and Pena has a ton of value on the open market as well. Let's look at the last three seasons for both players in terms of shortstop defense (Correa) and third base defense. We will look at defensive runs saved, outs above average, and fielding run value.

Things are never simple. If we were to look at defense in the simplest of terms, we would agree that Correa probably is not a positive impact defensive shortstop anymore. However, that depends largely on the metrics you choose to look at. It isn't enough to suggest that the new general manager needs to be analytical. Even analytical minded people can disagree, depending on the source they choose to believe.

In a vacuum, the most elegant solution seems to be Pena or someone else playing shortstop with Correa playing third and Parades playing first. That would ignore more than half of the whole equation. Having two players with OPS+ scores above 120 over the last two seasons is something this offense desperately needs. Still, one of the key questions is whether Correa would be healthier playing third base, shortstop, or first base.

It is easy to rule out shortstop from that question. It is tempting to have a 120+ player at shortstop because that opens up either third base or first base for another strong offensive player. Unfortunately, history shows that Correa struggles to stay healthy in normal situations and putting him at a more demanding defensive position would seem to up the odds of major injury. Third base is not as clear, and that is why those general managers get paid the big bucks.

Obviously, other decisions are like domino effects on the construction of the 2027 roster. They cannot run this team back for obvious reasons. Trading Walker is preferable for a number of reasons, but simply moving Paredes to first is not a foregone conclusion. If they determine that first base is the best way to get 600 plate appearances out of Carlos Correa, then they may make the decision to move him again, even if the it negates some defensive advantages. The best ability is availability.

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