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If the MLB postseason began today, the Houston Astros would be on the outside looking in. Thank goodness there's still three games left to play in the regular season. Though the Astros are still alive and have a chance to get back to playoffs for the ninth straight season, Houston's margin for error is basically nil heading into their three-game series in Anaheim.
Houston has lost the AL West to the Seattle Mariners and need a lot of help this weekend in order to be playing baseball in October. The Astros' only path back to the postseason will be via the Wild Card, and they've got an uphill battle with both the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers ahead of them.
One of those two teams will claim the AL Central crown, and the Astros will be battling the other for the final AL Wild Card spot. Let's explore the five scenarios that will help get Houston back to the postseason.
How Astros can crash MLB playoff bracket and leave Guardians and Tigers behind
For starters, if the Astros lose 2-of-3 to the Los Angeles Angels this weekend, they'll be eliminated regardless of what the Guardians and Tigers do. If Houston is able to snag two wins over LA, their playoffs hopes are still alive — barely.
If the Astros nab two wins over the Halos, they'll need one of the Guardians or Tigers to lose all three games this weekend. Cleveland has three games against the Texas Rangers and Detroit closes out the season on the road against the Boston Red Sox.
Playoff Scenarios | If the Astros go... | If the Guardians go... | If the Tigers go... | If the Red Sox go... |
|---|---|---|---|---|
No. 1 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 | N/A |
No. 2 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 1-2 | N/A |
No. 3 | 3-0 | N/A | N/A | 0-3 |
No. 4 | 2-1 | 0-3 | N/A | N/A |
No. 5 | 2-1 | N/A | 0-3 | N/A |
Realistically, the Astros need to sweep the Angels in order to give themselves any sort of chance at a return to the playoffs. If Houston sweeps LA, even Boston becomes vulnerable. The chart above lays out all the possible scenarios that would allow the Astros to return to the postseason.
Long story short; if the Astros lose on Friday night and both the Guardians and Tigers win, Houston's season is over. According to FanGraphs, the Astros have a 28.6% chance to make it back to the playoffs — the lowest odds among the four teams remaining in contention.
Buckle up, Astros fans! This has the potential to come down to the wire.