Astros may get bailed out from brutal free fall by unexpected AL Central savior

The Houston Astros' backs are against the wall this week. After spending most of the season being in the driver’s seat in the American League West, they’ve posted back-to-back losing months and now will have to make the postseason through the Wild Card thanks to the Mariners clinching the division on Wednesday. 

Normally, a collapse of that magnitude results in a season being over by the time the final week of the season rolls around. But luckily for the Astros, they still have a path to make the postseason thanks to the Tigers' historic collapse in the American League Central. 

At one point this year, the Tigers had a 15 1/2 game lead on the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central and had an 100% chance of winning the division at Fangraphs. But the wheels have completely fallen off in Detroit while the Guardians have won at a historic rate to all but clinch the AL Central crown. 

In fact, the Tigers have lost eight games in a row as of September 25 and have fallen back into the AL Wild Card race, where they currently sit one game ahead of the Astros. It’s a real race to the bottom, but the Astros have a chance to limp across the finish line thanks to Detroit’s struggles. 

Tigers’ historic collapse has opened the door for the Astros to make the postseason 

While the Astros making the postseason via the Wild Card Round seems a bit like a loss given the huge lead they had over the Mariners at certain points this year, it would still a berth in the postseason. As the Tigers showed the Astros last year, all you need to do is get in.

The Astros still have a chance to do just that. While they have one game remaining against the Athletics (who they should have beaten in the first two games of the series), they’re closing the season against the lowly Angels, whereas the Tigers are finishing the season with a three-game series against the Red Sox, who still have plenty to play for. 

That difference in opponents is a good sign for the Astros considering they don’t have the tiebreaker over the Tigers, so they’d need to have a one game lead over the Tigers to beat them out for a postseason spot. Neither team has yet to announce their starters for the weekend, but the Tigers have the obvious advantage of being able to roll Tarik Skubal out for one of their games over the weekend. 

Meanwhile, the Astros used Hunter Brown in their loss on Wednesday and have Framber Valdez going on Thursday, which means they’ll likely be without their biggest starters over the weekend. The Astros’ pitching depth wasn’t great even in the best of times, but it’s extremely thin now thanks to some predictable injuries. 

At this point, the Astros will likely need to win out to make the postseason while also needing some help from the Red Sox. Not ideal. 

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