Latest Luis Garcia injury update make Houston's offseason gamble look even worse

The battered and bruised Houston Astros are now on the outside of the playoff picture looking in with just four games left to play in the 2025 season. Sitting a game behind the free-falling Detroit Tigers for the final American League Wild Card spot is a stunning development for a club whose stranglehold on first place in the AL West extended for 118 days and came to an end just a week ago on September 18.

There are many reasons for the Astros' collapse, but they can all be tied back to one key element: the failure of their offseason gambit. In an effort to retool on the fly while keeping payroll down, Houston went into the season with several glaring holes on the roster. Perhaps none was more prevalent than the holes in the rotation beyond Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez.

Houston decided to skimp on adding starting pitching, instead relying on virtual unknowns like Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, and Hayden Wesneski with an eye towards reinforcements coming in the form of Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr.

That didn't work out well as Blanco and Wesneski both wound up needing Tommy John surgery, going on the shelf in May, while Arrighetti missed significant time thanks to a fractured finger and then later succumbing to an elbow injury that has ended his season.

The club doubled down on the hope that its injured trio of starters would save them in the second half, ultimately balking at the price tag to acquire Dylan Cease at the trade deadline and leaving the rotation without any proven and healthy reinforcements.

Predictably, McCullers struggled to be effective after last pitching in 2022 and landed on the IL four times this season. Javier has also been ineffective in his return from Tommy John surgery. The biggest blow, however, is likely the injury Luis Garcia suffered upon his return after a 28-month odyssey to return from his own Tommy John surgery, which will now have critical repercussions for 2026 as well.

Latest Luis Garcia injury news shows how misguided the Astros' plan really was

Of all the injured starters the Astros were counting on to be some sort of season-saving cavalry down the stretch, Garcia was the one who offered the most upside, but also the most risk. After undergoing Tommy John surgery on May 19, 2023, the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up's recovery took twice as long as normal thanks to a ton of setbacks.

Even during his rehab assignment this year at Triple-A Sugar Land, he struggled to regain and retain his velocity despite some impressive performances. Now, after leaving his September 9 start with an elbow issue, Garcia will be going under the knife again and will miss the entire 2026 season.

The Astros got just two starts and 7.2 innings out of the once-promising 28-year-old righty, and in those starts, his average fastball velocity sat at just 91.2 miles per hour, down from his pre-Tommy John peak of 94.1 miles per hour back in 2022.

For Houston, this development is the exclamation point that proves their offseason strategy and the logic exercised at the trade deadline were misguided. After all, shouldn't it have been common sense that relying on so many pitchers coming back from serious injuries would spell doom for the starting rotation?

For Garcia, it's an even more tragic development. As a youngster, he looked like a potential superstar starter, and when he's been out there, he's been effective, as evidenced by his career 3.60 ERA. However, the latest injury could be a death knell to his once-promising career, and at the very least will require even more perseverance and tenacity to overcome.

He's already shown those qualities in spades during his last comeback attempt, and he'll have to reach down deep to find the fortitude to overcome this latest setback. The Astros now know they won't be able to count on Garcia in 2026, and hopefully have learned their lesson and will plan better this offseason.

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