Astros playoff odds wrecked by twist nobody saw coming (but probably should've)

The Houston Astros have messed around lately and found out that they may indeed miss the playoffs. When Houston began a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners on Friday, the Astros were tied with the Mariners atop the American League West, and every good outcome seemed possible, especially with Seattle still having to face the Los Angeles Dodgers to end the year.

And then, everything proceeded to go terribly wrong for Houston, particularly on offense. The Astros were swept by the Mariners at home, effectively killing their division hopes. Even worse, Houston followed that up by losing back-to-back games to the lowly Athletics, making for five straight defeats. 

The Astros were outscored 28-8 over the five-game horror show, with their hitters going a despicable 28-for-160 (.175).

The Astros' offense turning frigid is not a new development 

Perhaps the most painful thing about Houston’s offense going Arctic at the worst possible time is that Astros fans should have seen this coming, as Houston’s offense has been rather unremarkable all season long. And there are a ton of team metrics that back that up.

Entering Wednesday, the Astros ranked unfavorably in almost every offensive team statistic: No. 24 in runs scored, No. 23 in RBI, No. 22 in doubles, No. 19 in slugging percentage, No. 17 in home runs, and No. 16 in on-base percentage.

What’s more, manager Joe Espada hasn’t exactly been aggressive on the basepaths this season in an attempt to light a spark. The Astros rank No. 27 in stolen bases.

Individual offensive performances from the Astros in 2025 (or a lack thereof) tell a similar story. Houston only has one player hitting above .300 on the year, and it’s Jeremy Peña, who has missed several games and is currently injured again.

There hasn’t been much power to be found in Houston’s lineup, either. Jose Altuve is the only Astro with more than 23 home runs, and Houston as a club only has six players with 10 or more homers. Those are sad numbers when you consider that an AL rival, the New York Yankees, have 10 players with 10 or more homers, including four players with more homers than any Astro in 2025.

It would be an oversimplification to attribute Houston’s offensive woes to injuries or to Espada (although his seat is undeniably warm). Whatever the issue has been for the Astros’ bats all season long, they still have five games to figure it out.

While Houston has lost some control of its destiny over the last five games, it can give itself a shot at a wild-card berth by taking care of business in the next five. With one more game against the Athletics followed by a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels to finish the season, it feels like it’ll take three or even four wins for Houston to get in, but anything could happen.

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