History suggests Astros' misguided pursuit of Willy Adames could end in disaster

While re-signing Alex Bregman remains a priority for the Houston Astros this offseason, it would appear as though Plan B would include shortstop Willy Adames. The 29-year-old has enjoyed loads of success with both the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers and is one of the top infielders available in free agency this offseason.

While some Astros fans are scratching their heads at the idea of pursuing a career shortstop with Jeremy Peña firmly entrenched at the position, many top executives see Adames as a third baseman. That explains the Astros' supposed interest.

But while Adames has enjoyed a fine career to this point, a number of others have done the same and failed upon reaching their next destination. The road of shortstops who struck it rich in free agency is littered with examples of frustration and outright implosion. It's a cautionary tale to be sure, and one that the Astros may want to avoid altogether.

Astros' free agent target Willy Adames could fall victim to the same fate of Javier Báez, Trevor Story, and Dansby Swanson

Astros fans needn't look too far in the rear view mirror to see the warning signs.

Javier Báez had a fantastic career with the Chicago Cubs, then fell off a cliff after joining the Detroit Tigers as a free agent in following the 2021 season. After inking a six-year, $140 million deal in the Motor City, Báez has appeared in 360 games and posted a .221/.262/.347 slash line. If that's what $23 million per season gets you, then the Astros should look elsewhere.

But the Tigers weren't the only victim. Trevor Story's time in the Mile High City is well documented. In six seasons with the Colorado Rockies, Story went to two All-Star Games while posting an .863 OPS and playing in 140-plus games each season. But after signing a six-year, $140 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, Story has averaged 54 games played with a .693 OPS.

Dansby Swanson is yet another example of a failed free agent signing. The longtime Atlanta Braves shortstop left for the Chicago Cubs after the 2022 season. Though still an elite defender, Swanson's 101 OPS+ equates to an average hitter who's pulling down an average of $25 million per season.

The Astros' defense would suffer dramatically if Willy Adames is signed

Another avenue that no one talks about is Adames' defense. After posting 16 outs above average (OAA) in 2023 and ranking among the best defensive shortstops in the game, Adames recorded just 1 OAA last season. Even more disturbing is Adames' defensive runs saved (DRS) total.

According to Fielding Bible, Adames was worth 8 DRS in 2023 and saw that number bottom out to -16 DRS last season. Adames went from a top-10 defender to the worst in the game. What happened?

The troubling trend among free agent shortstops who take a nosedive with their new ball club, coupled with a possible defensive meltdown, should have the Astros thinking long and hard before they abandon a reunion with Bregman in order to pursue Adames. The red flags are ever present, and the Houston faithful are trusting that GM Dana Brown and Co. are aware of those potential pitfalls.

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