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Houston Astros fans have been asking themselves all week (month?), "Why hasn't Alex Bregman signed a long-term deal yet?" It's a fair question. It's not as if the Astros didn't know that Bregman was going to enter free agency this offseason. Shouldn't the Astros' front office just extend their last, best, and final offer to Bregman and get this whole ordeal over with?
On one hand, that makes perfect sense. Astros GM Dana Brown has proclaimed that third base is the team's priority this offseason. But now two weeks into the offseason, there's been little to no movement when it comes to re-signing the two-time All-Star. What is going on?
Perhaps a recent poll at MLB.com will offer Astros fans some insight as to why Houston has been treading carefully during their negotiations with the free agent infielder. 16 MLB executives were asked who is the No. 2 free agent available this offseason behind Juan Soto. Only one position player's name was uttered, and it wasn't Bregman. It was Willy Adames.
Recent poll reveals why Astros are treading carefully in Alex Bregman negotiations
Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Max Fried were all mentioned as well, but Adames stuck out as the lone position player. Moreover, some executives were brutally honest about Bregman and noted his decline in recent years. The fact that Adames plays a premium position (shortstop) and is a year-and-a-half younger also play into his favor.
There's definitely some truth to those comments from opposing front office staff employees. After posting a 134 OPS+ in 2022, Bregman's OPS+ dropped to 122 in 2023 and 118 this past season. According to FanGraphs, Bregman's wRC+ was 137 in 2022, but that number faded to 126 during the 2023 season and fell to 118 in 2024. Are these nameless executives onto something?
When a player like Bregman is looking to ink a multiyear contract worth over $150 million, the Astros need to be sure they're making the right investment. While Astros fans are tired of seeing so many of their homegrown players leave via free agency, it's hard to overlook what's happened to a player like George Springer and not have a little apprehension when it comes to Bregman's trajectory going forward.
Many MLB experts believe that Houston and Bregman will inevitably get a deal done, but the opinions of fellow major league front office personnel may signal why the negotiations have been so slow at the outset.