Breaking down how the Astros can clinch a playoff spot this week (or get eliminated)

If you had asked Houston Astros fans, or even Seattle Mariners fans, how the final three-game set at Daikin Park would play out, few would have been bold enough to predict a Seattle sweep. Yet that’s exactly what unfolded. The Mariners rolled into Houston, already on fire at just the right time, and walked away with three straight wins, leaving the defending AL West champions stunned and suddenly staring down the real possibility of missing the postseason altogether.

To be fair, the Astros have been battered and bruised all season. From Yordan Alvarez to Spencer Arrighetti, Lance McCullers Jr., and Isaac Paredes (who only just returned), the list of setbacks feels endless. Their depth has been tested beyond belief, yet somehow, Houston managed to cling to first place through sheer resilience. But against a surging Mariners squad, their luck finally ran out. The sweep was decisive, the momentum shift dramatic, and now the Astros find themselves on the outside looking in, desperate to piece together a path forward in the season’s final week.

Houston playoff hopes alive if Astros survive division spoilers

The problem? That path may require help from an unlikely ally: the Colorado Rockies. With a 43-113 record, the Rockies have been MLB’s doormat in 2025. Yet they’re suddenly the biggest obstacle standing between Houston and another AL West crown. The Mariners only need to win three of their final six games — against the Rockies and Dodgers — to clinch the division outright. That means the Astros can’t afford a single stumble; they need perfection to even dream of a comeback.

Realistically, Houston’s more likely route is through the Wild Card race. But even that is complicated. The Cleveland Guardians own the tiebreaker over the Astros and have also caught fire, ripping off nine wins in their last ten. They’ve turned the AL Central into chaos, shrinking a Detroit Tigers lead that once stood at 14 games back in July, and still sat at 6.5 games just last week, into a razor-thin margin. The Tigers, now only a game ahead of both Cleveland and Houston, are unraveling with six straight losses, opening the door for someone, anyone, to take their spot.

And here’s where the season hangs in the balance: if the Astros handle their business and take at least their next two series, October baseball is still theirs to claim. In its own twisted way, the Wild Card race tilts in Houston’s favor, thanks to Detroit’s collapse. The Tigers, once cruising toward the postseason, now face six brutal road games: three against the Guardians and three against the Red Sox. All three of those teams are either tied with Houston or only a game ahead, which means the Astros control just enough of their destiny to make the math work.

Right now, PlayoffStatus.com gives Houston a 38 percent chance of snagging the sixth Wild Card spot — a number that stands 21 percent higher than Cleveland’s odds and 15 percent better than Boston’s. Translation? The path is still open.

That task, of course, won’t come easy. Houston closes its season with six straight road games, all against AL West rivals who know them best and would relish the chance to play spoiler. The Athletics and Angels may be out of contention, but they won’t hesitate to pile on the misery of a team that’s dominated the division for seven of the last eight years. 

The Astros don’t control every lever in this race, but they do control the one that matters most: their own play. Win out, and the postseason is still in reach. Slip again, and this wild 2025 season could end in the most unthinkable way yet, without Houston in the playoffs at all.

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