Bleacher Report identified the perfect Astros' target, but closing deal could be tough

While the Houston Astros have multiple needs this offseason, the starting rotation might be at the top of the list. Hunter Brown took a step back in 2026, key additions from last offseason, Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai, were incredibly underwhelming, and the unit as a whole really struggled to stay healthy.

The Astros will need to find at least one reliable upgrade to both eat innings and provide quality outings every fifth day. New GM Randy Flores will need to act quickly, not only because of the impending lockout, but also due to a relatively weak free agent class where the talent level drops off quickly.

One player consistently linked to the Astros so far this offseason has been veteran righty Tyler Mahle. Bleacher Report predicted that the 32-year-old will end up in Houston on a two-year, $39 million deal that includes a $22 million club option for 2029. It seems like a perfect match for Houston, but their biggest competitor for him will be the team he ended the season with.

Tyler Mahle should be a must get for the Astros, and they should outbid anyone to get him

Last offseason, Mahle signed a one-year contract with the San Francisco Giants. His time in the Bay Area was rough, but he ended up being traded at the deadline to the Atlanta Braves, where he completely revitalized his season and his value this offseason.

After posting a 5.13 ERA in 18 starts for the Giants, Mahle had a 1.99 ERA in nine starts for the Braves. Not only did his K rate slightly rise from 22.0% to 22.9%, but the Braves helped him fix his control. The righty's BB-rate dropped from 9.2% to 4.3%. In just over half the innings he pitched with the Giants, he was able to drop his WHIP from 1.394 to 0.957.

Mahle has unfortunately dealt with a rash of injuries throughout his career, but in his first mostly healthy season since 2021, the 32-year-old was able to make 27 starts and pitch 149 innings. The hope now is that those injuries are behind him, which is why he is getting multi-year contract projections.

If the Astros want to push for Mahle, they are going to have to battle the Braves for him. The Braves are also in the market for multiple starting pitchers this offseason, and re-signing Mahle after the way he performed for them seems to be another possibility that's being floated around. The veteran could prefer to return to Atlanta — being familiar with the team — meaning Houston would need to substantially outbid them in that case.

Mahle would be an excellent addition to the Astros for 2027. He would provide high-quality innings and be a solid mid-rotation arm in a rotation that is starving for some consistency. The question becomes: will they be able to outbid other teams to get him?

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