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MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent predictions for Astros are depressing, but may not be wrong

ByBrian Burrows
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Jan 5, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros owner Jim Crane talks during a press conference to introduce Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Jan 5, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros owner Jim Crane talks during a press conference to introduce Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Astros were the class of baseball for a span of eight seasons. Starting with a World Series win in 2017, the Astros would play in or win the ALCS every year from '17 to 2023. They would appear in three more World Series after 2017, picking up their second Commissioner's Trophy in 2022. Oh, how the mighty have fallen, though.

Even though they've been in the playoffs two of the three years since their last ALCS appearance in 2023, the team just isn't the same. The reluctance to spend money to keep marquee players by owner Jim Crane has meant the core that got them to those World Series is mostly gone, and they haven't been able to replace them to keep the competitiveness up.

Now, the Astros became the first team in MLB history without a winning record to make the playoffs. They are trying to rebuild the roster under newly hired GM Randy Flores, but the feeling from MLB analysts is that it won't be an overly impressive offseason. MLB Trade Rumors released their top 50 free agents featuring contract and team predictions, and the players they think the Astros could get are underwhelming at best.

The highest-ranking player on the list is RHP Tyler Mahle at No. 14, the next is RHP Mike Soroka at No. 26, then LHP Steven Okert, who is No. 42, then LHP Robbie Ray ranked No. 50. The cast of names looks underwhelming to fans, but honestly, it should.

The lack of faith in the Astros this offseason come from their own actions

The Astros find themselves in a weird transition period in their franchise timeline. They are still hanging on to an ever-declining Jose Altuve. They have Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, and Christian Walker, who are win-now players. Then it's a cast of young, developing players such as Cam Smith and Bryce Matthews, or veteran journeymen trying to stick on an MLB roster.

Crane won't commit the money necessary to bring in a prized free agent to play next to Alvarez and Pena, and it doesn't make sense to sign the second tier of players like Brandon Lowe or Luis Arraez. That leaves them with the upper-level vets who will get multi-year deals like Mahle (who MLBTR projects to get three years, $54 million), or the player that teams take a chance on like Mike Soroka (projected at two years, $26 million with an opt-out).

The previous regime didn't do a good enough job of setting up a new core of players to try and rebuild quickly after they allowed players like Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman to leave in free agency. Now they are stuck in purgatory, trying to compete for the veterans who are good enough to lead a championship team, but not wanting to commit the resources to build around them and not wanting to sell those veterans for prospects.

Astros fans can hope that they can convince a top-tier free agent to come play for them. The AL West is wide open heading into 2027, and one or two major additions could do the trick, but it's hard to do that when they won't pay players. That is going to leave them stuck with middling veterans like MLBTR projected. It hurts to see, but it's not surprising.

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