Astros will walk away with a surprise gift once Framber Valdez enters free agency

The MLB offseason is about to get underway, and the Houston Astros have a laundry list of items they'll need to check off in the coming weeks. Free agency is set to begin, and Astros GM Dana Brown will be tasked with improving Houston's roster without breaking the bank, something that will likely spell the end of Framber Valdez's time in Houston.

Valdez is a free agent this offseason, and as one of the top arms on the open market, he will draw a number of potential suitors. His kerfuffle with teammate Cesar Salazar may've caused a handful of organizations to take Valdez off their offseason wishlist, but his talents will be too great for a majority of teams to pass up this winter.

When a player of Valdez's talents hits free agency, his former organization has the right to extend a qualifying offer (QO) as a means to bring the player back on a one-year deal. This year, that price tag is just over $22 million. The player can then decide to accept or reject the offer, and since Valdez is likely to receive considerably more than $22 million, he'll undoubtedly reject the offer.

What will the Astros receive after extending a qualifying offer to Framber Valdez?

But once the QO is extended, it effectively attaches draft capital to a player's signing. Depending on whether or not the team is revenue revenue-sharing recipient or not determines the value of the draft pick that the signing team must surrender. Luxury tax payers lose their second and fifth-highest picks in next year's draft, while revenue-sharing recipients must give up their third-highest selection.

There is, however, an added benefit for a team like the Astros, who are likely to lose a free agent who's rejected a QO. If, as expected, Valdez receives and rejects the Astros' QO, Houston (because it crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2025) will receive an additional pick in the 2026 MLB Draft after Round 4. Revenue-sharing beneficiaries pick up an additional selection after the first round.

Last offseason, 13 players received QOs, and that number could grow this winter. Valdez will assuredly receive a QO, as will former Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker. Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, and Dylan Cease are all but guaranteed to be extended a qualifying offer as well.