Astros think Jose Altuve is turning things around, but his reality is more of a mixed bag

There’s a version of this season in which Friday night’s game turned everything around for the Houston Astros. It was 3-2 Cleveland when the Astros came to the plate against Tanner Bibee, who had been okay, but not great. With two on and one out, the Guardians went to Matt Festa to face Jose Altuve, and he jumped on a four-seamer near the middle of the zone and hit it 349 feet into the Crawford Boxes for a three-run homer. After an RBI double an inning later, Altuve had been the key in a 9-3 win.

The takes could have written themselves. He’s back, folks. Father Time blinked, and the panic over the franchise stalwart is over. Of course, that game is just one game. He did have two singles in four at bats the next day, but then was hitless again on Sunday, and those games are far more indicative of the big picture, even though he does have three home runs in his last seven games.

Jose Altuve's great night doesn't fix a mixed-bag season

The Astros seem to be believers, at least outwardly. Joe Espada has said that Altuve is grinding to get right and said that the slump is about swing mechanics and pitch recognition that generally work themselves out. His bet is that the work is paying off and the breakout is coming. The organization wants you to believe Friday and the few games before it are the start. But the numbers are still not there.

Overall, he’s hitting .235/.308/.399, which is roughly average. But that’s still putting a ton of weight on the first 11 games of the season. Since that crazy start, he’s hit .205/.250/.347. He’s shown an ability to turn on a pitch here and there, which isn’t useless, but he’s struggled quite a bit other than that. 

For someone with Altuve’s pedigree, and, if we’re being honest, price tag, what he’s doing simply isn’t enough. The mixed bag with Altuve is not so much that he’s bad because he isn’t, at least not overall. He’s average. He’s ordinary. And that’s not enough, especially if he’s going to continue to be used as a middle-of-the-order bat.

The underlying numbers back up the eye test that it’s not good enough. His expected average of .236 is right in line with reality, but his xSLG is .362, which is nearly 40 points below his SLG through the weekend. His wOBA of .311 is fine enough, but his xwOBA of .298 is below average. His hard-hit rate and barrel numbers are kind of in line with most of his great career, but his launch angle is down, and with it, his groundball rate is as high as it’s been since 2023. He’s succeeded this way before, but with his bat speed down almost a full mile per hour from last season, it’s getting harder and harder for him to capitalize on mistakes even when he’s ready for it. 

The truth is somewhere in between “he’s cooked” and “he’s fixed.” He’s not currently in a long hitless stretch like we’ve seen a few times this year. The frustration Espada mentioned with him is the frustration of a great hitter who knows the gap between what he’s doing and what he’s done. That’s a better sign than indifference. A few more nights like Friday and Saturday and this isn’t a conversation. There’s clearly the ability in there to do this. 

But a turnaround is a trend, and not a game or two. One eruption sandwiched between silence isn’t turning a corner. It’s a reminder of what he can be, but what he hasn’t been. And right now the Astros are betting on the trend showing up, but that can’t be counted on to this point. Two multi-hit games over the weekend is great, but he only had one other since May 11, spanning 15 games before Friday night.

Typically, sure, preach patience and let an aging franchise icon work it out. And it’s probably the right move in a vacuum. He’s under contract for a lot of money between now and 2029. But the Astros have decided they aren’t in a vacuum. They’re hanging around a bad American League and a bad American League West, and the front office has been adamant that they’re buyers. They’re going to chase a lefty, and they’re not trading anyone who can bring a reset. Dana Brown has effectively staked his job on a turnaround that hasn’t fully shown up.

If that’s the choice, and, well, it is, you need Altuve to be more than league average. And, again, that’s the overall line. The trend is far below league average. A lineup that leans on Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, and Christian Walker can score some runs, but they also can’t really afford for Altuve to just be along for the ride. He needs to be part of the reason they make this comeback. The stakes of “is he actually back” are higher than they’d be for a team that had conceded. 

The reality is probably that Altuve is better than the low point and worse than the high point. So maybe the overall numbers are a pretty good barometer. Friday, and Saturday, to a lesser extent, don’t really change that. It just made the better part a bit louder. The Astros right now are making the choice to believe he’s either back or on the right track. What’s actually happening is a mixed bag, and for a team convinced they’re good enough, that’s not good enough.

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