Astros’ predicted AL West finish would lead to sea of change throughout the franchise

The Houston Astros want to compete in 2026, but what they want and what they'll be able to achieve are two very different things. The 2025 campaign proved that the aging roster cannot simply be penciled in for a postseason berth, but it's hard to say definitively that the bottom has fallen out.

That's what makes the Astros so hard to peg in 2026. MLB.com ranked them in the .500 winning percentage tier, otherwise known as no man's land. Keith Law's AL West predictions might be a hair more optimistic for Houston, but an 84-78 finish likely isn't enough to get into the playoffs.

Two straight years of missing the playoffs would have Jim Crane fuming and would lead to some serious changes. Dana Brown and Joe Espada are both in the final year of their contracts, and Crane has explicitly stated that he wants the focus to be on contention in 2026 before he'll talk extensions.

Having new leadership in both the front office and the dugout wouldn't be the final wave, however. If Brown and Espada are ousted, the hypothetical new power structure will certainly have ideas about the franchise's future, and they may differ drastically from the course that has already been set.

Astros' predicted record would bring about changes beyond Dana Brown and Joe Espada's exit

The elephant in the room now is how the Astros move forward in 2027 and beyond, regardless of who is steering the ship. Contending is the 2026 goal, and that won't change, but there comes a point where the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Christian Walker are no longer viable players.

At the same time, with the farm system ranked in the cellar, it's hard to see where reinforcements come. Many of the Astros' veteran assets have no trade value thanks to their bloated contracts and advanced age. It's a true quagmire.

What Houston might need to do is take a bold step. The best players on the team today are the ones whom they missed the boat on extending. Case in point, one of Chandler Rome's bold predictions sees the Astros potentially trading Jeremy Peña at the deadline. That seems unlikely given that Brown would be the one to pull the trigger, essentially sealing his own fate at season's end.

After the season, though, with a new regime in place, that doesn't seem far-fetched. 2027 is Peña's final year of team control, and an extension isn't likely even if they could afford it. Ditto for Hunter Brown, who has an additional year of control left in comparison, but will be nearly impossible to extend following his third-place Cy Young finish a year ago.

If the Astros were to go all in on a youth movement, you could also see Yordan Alvarez dealt over the winter. As long as he's healthy and back to being a top-four hitter in the game, he could net a lot of prospect capital, being that he's in his prime and will be owed just $53.6 million over two years.

Things would start to get awkward with the old guard and young faces working together for a time, but sooner or later, the Astros have to hit the reset button if the 2026 version of the club isn't good enough to get to the playoffs, then it would behoove them to capitalize on what they do have to revitalize the system.

The worst possible outcome for Houston in 2026 might just be making the postseason but having no chance of making any noise once it gets there. In that scenario, we might see the leadership retained and the status quo stay intact as the club kicks the inevitable rebuilding can down the road for another year.