Astros' ongoing pitching problem starts with one brutal truth

If you were just watching the offense, you would think that the Houston Astros would be off to a great start to the 2026 season. However, the Astros have instead, as of the morning of April 13, lost seven straight games, which includes a sweep at the hands of the Rockies, and that is definitely a low point for any team in baseball. While Houston has had no trouble scoring runs this season, their pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball to start 2026.

Some drop-off is understandable. Houston lost Framber Valdez to free agency over the offseason, and losing Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier to shoulder injuries was always going to take a toll. However, the Astros' struggles on the pitching side have been all season long, so not all the blame can be placed solely on who is on the injured list.

While it is likely that the Astros would be performing better if they were completely healthy, there is also the matter that opposing hitters collectively do not seem fooled by the staff's fastball.

Astros’ doomsday scenario for their rotation is unfolding as more injuries continue to pile up

Again, no one is arguing that the health of the pitching staff hasn't played a role. Not only have the Astros been without Brown and Javier, but closer Josh Hader has been on the shelf as well, and it is looking increasingly likely that they could be without Tatsuya Imai and Cody Bolton for the foreseeable future as well. Having to bank on Lance McCullers Jr. being both good and healthy is not an enviable position to be in.

However, it is more than that. Regardless of who has been on the mound, Astros pitchers' fastballs have been getting torched to start the season. Looking solely at Fastball Runs Above Average (wFA), Houston pitchers' fastballs have been worth a dreadful -20.3 wFA, which is by far the worst in the league. In contrast, the Braves currently led MLB in wFA with 16.4, and the Astros finished 10th in baseball last season with a 23.2 wFA.

Currently, Houston only has three pitchers with a positive wFA, and one of them, Brown, is on the injured list for the foreseeable future. On the flip side, the biggest offenders have been Javier (who is on the IL), Ryan Weiss, AJ Blubaugh, and struggling replacement closer Bryan Abreu. Throughout the rotation and bullpen, fastballs are getting destroyed and undoing most of the good work that the offense has been doing.

If this were a handful of players, then one could focus on them and try to make adjustments. However, the fact that it is a team-wide problem points to some deeper issues. Maybe Yainer Diaz has been calling painfully predictable games, opposing hitters are getting a good read on when heaters are coming, and/or the Astros are employing a flawed strategy from the jump. Whatever the cause(s) may be, Houston needs to figure out how to fix this fastball problem. If they don't, it may not matter who is healthy and who is not.

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