It's starting to feel like the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox are destined to make a trade. Both clubs have surpluses that the other can benefit from, and it's gotten to the point that coming together to make a deal just makes sense.
In a perfect world, the Astros would hold on to Paredes and find another way to get a left-handed bat in the outfield, but without any other valid trade chips, it's going to have to be the All-Star third baseman who is on the move. It might be a good thing, too, as the arbitration drama between him and the club threatens to make a tight payroll situation that much more untenable.
Meanwhile, Boston's burning hole at third base after losing Alex Bregman couldn't be solved by a better fit than Paredes. His pull-heavy, fly ball approach worked beautifully with Daikin Park's Crawford Boxes and would play just as well with Fenway's Green Monster.
As for the Astros, getting a left-handed bat is imperative, and the outfield is the easiest way to find a spot. The Red Sox have a glut of lefty outfielders, and though chief baseball officer Craig Breslow threw cold water on the idea of trading from his surplus, it seems that as time has gone on, he's become more open to the idea.
This is the ideal Isaac Paredes-centered trade for the Astros and Red Sox
The easy answer is a one-for-one swap of Paredes and Jarren Duran. Duran is a free agent after the 2028 season, while Paredes hits the market a year earlier. The money would be about the same, too. However, part of the benefit for Houston here is shedding payroll. And while Duran is a good player, his defense slipped in 2025, as well as his bat. Paredes, on the other hand, has been a player on the rise.
Instead, Wilyer Abreu is the Red Sox outfielder who the Astros need to target. The 26-year-old is a superb defender, posting 15 defensive runs saved in just 847.1 innings, while also essentially matching Duran's offensive output, posting a 110 wRC+ of his own. Abreu is also a left-handed hitter, but doesn't hit arbitration until next offseason and is under team control for four more seasons.
Houston could save money in this swap, but that control is going to add to the cost. Abreu for Paredes straight-up won't work, but the Astros can sweeten the pot by including lefty reliever Steven Okert.
Boston has only Jovani Moran as a non-Aroldis Chapman lefty in their pen, so a second, more battle-tested southpaw could put the deal over the top for them. Okert was rock-solid in 2025, posting a 3.01 ERA and 30.4% K-rate in 71.2 innings, but is a free agent at season's end and unlikely to be re-signed.
Houston still has Bryan King in his pre-arb years from the left side, and clearing Okert would open the door for a younger arm like AJ Blubaugh to grab a bullpen spot. A starter by trade, Blubaugh can serve in a multi-inning role, which will be extra helpful given the Astros' desire to use a six-man rotation. In this scenario, they'd also be swapping out a reliever without options for one who can be moved back and forth to further provide the flexibility needed to run that unique rotation configuration.
At the end of the day, the Astros get a premium defender with an above-average bat, balance out their right-handed-heavy lineup, and can save roughly $10 million. The Red Sox get a picture-perfect hitter for their ballpark at a position of need and scratch another itch, filling an underrated bullpen need. A rare win-win for both sides.
