Astros’ arbitration drama with Isaac Paredes could make their next step crystal clear

The Houston Astros have been forecasting a trade of Isaac Paredes throughout the offseason, and Thursday's arbitration deadline was further proof of that reality. While the Astros were able to work out deals with most of their arbitration-eligible players, Paredes was one of two players they couldn't reach an agreement.

Paredes submitted an amount of $9.95 million while the Astros countered with $8.75 million. Even with Thursday's deadline, the two sides can still work out a deal before the hearing that is scheduled to take place before spring training.

Arguing over less than $2 million may seem trivial, but it has all to do with the team's payroll outlook. After Thursday's moves, the Astros' payroll sits at $238.4 million for next season. The luxury tax is $244 million, and Jim Crane's impression is that the team is looking to stay under that number.

As much as Astros fans may be rolling their eyes over this truth, it makes sense why they're being stingy here. The two sides being on opposite ends of the spectrum is also a reminder of the strong possibility that Paredes will be moved before Opening Day.

Isaac Paredes arbitration drama could further Astros trade efforts

Moving Paredes is certainly tied to Houston's payroll outlook. If they can free up close to $10 million ahead of the season, that would go a long way toward GM Dana Brown and the Astros front office having the financial room available to make moves during the season.

The other component is one that Astros fans know all too well. The team's decision to reunite with Carlos Correa at the trade deadline created an infield logjam that needs to be resolved by Opening Day. Houston has maintained that there's a way for them to roster both Paredes and Christian Walker.

But between the math of the bloated contracts the Astros already have and the construction of their roster, the scenario of carrying both Paredes and Walker next season have never quite added up.

Walker's contract, which has a limited no-trade clause, makes it unlikely that the team finds a taker for his services, but once Paredes' salary is determined for 2026, that may seal his fate.