Astros may be forced to pivot as Twins take top trade target off the table

The starting rotation is not the only flaw the Houston Astros need to address this offseason, but it is certainly the biggest. In an ideal world, Houston would simply reunite with star southpaw Framber Valdez and move on to other business, but the reality is that it is a remote possibility.

The Astros have already added two starters to the mix in Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss, but those budget signings are more about replacing the depth that will be on the shelf in 2026 as Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter all recover from Tommy John surgery.

Instead, what Houston really needs is a strong No. 2 behind Hunter Brown, but the harsh financial realities of their situation make simply signing one nearly impossible. Instead, their best course of action would be to find a trade partner willing to part with a front-end hurler who is still on a reasonable salary.

Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins looked to be that guy, but according to ESPN's Jeff Passan and Buster Olney, the rug may have gotten pulled out from under the Astros in their pursuit of the Minnesota ace.

Astros might need to go to Plan B amid rumblings that the Twins no longer have Joe Ryan on the block

Swinging any kind of trade is tough, too. Houston's farm system ranks in the league's cellar, making it difficult, though not impossible, to come up with a package of prospects that could land a big fish like Ryan.

There are other aces on the block, however, the path to a deal with many of them seems even more difficult. For example, the Milwaukee Brewers could move Freddy Peralta, but as a team that won an MLB-high 97 games last season, they'll be looking for pieces ready to make an impact immediately. That kind of depth is simply something the Astros don't have.

Other options include guys with checkered injury histories, like Cincinnati's Hunter Greene, guys without the top-end talent like Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller, or guys who already have hefty salaries, like the Mets' Kodai Senga.

Ryan is projected to make about $6 million in arbitration for the upcoming season and is under team control through the end of the 2027 season. The Twins were thought to be tearing it down, meaning far-off prospects wouldn't necessarily be a hindrance to a deal if the talent was there.

However, in the ESPN report, Olney wrote, "Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven't been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that's because they don't have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan."

That makes it seem as if he's unavailable, and perhaps the Twins have changed course. On the other hand, there's always a chance that it's posturing designed to extract maximum value as hot stove season heats up.

Nevertheless, this has to have Houston considering their alternatives. None of which is ideal. Rebound candidates are what seem to be the most likely place they go, with Zac Gallen making sense as a free-agent target and either Senga or the Mets' other struggling ace, Sean Manaea, being potential solutions in a bad-contract-for-bad-contract style trade. The latter likely only happens if and when Pete Alonso signs elsewhere.

The third potential outcome is that the Astros are simply left out in the cold and will try to cobble it together with Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, and Weiss/Pearson. That's a scary thought, but it's also a possibility Astros fans must prepare themselves for.