Astros left with a bitter reality after D-backs overpay Merrill Kelly

The Houston Astros lost one of their most likely free agent targets over the weekend after Merrill Kelly agreed to a reunion with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kelly was traded to the Astros' arch rival, the Texas Rangers, at last year's deadline, but maintained he wanted to return to the desert after reaching free agency this winter.

Merrill, a Houston native, was thought to be in play for the Astros. After seeing the price tag, however, Houston was undoubtedly going to be on the outside looking in. Merrill inked a two-year deal worth $40 million despite the fact most outlets assumed he'd be taking home considerably less.

MLB Trade Rumors pegged Merrill's contract to be in the neighborhood of $36 million over two years while ESPN assumed the veteran right-hander would sign a two-year, $35 million contract. Either way, it's easy to look at this deal as somewhat of an overpay, but it's also the reality of where the free agent market sits at the moment. As such, the Astros face the harsh reality that in order to upgrade the pitching staff, they'll have to make a trade — and that's not going to be cheap either.

Merrill Kelly signed with the D-backs and now the Astros are faced with the harsh reality of the free agent market

Houston has done their best to shop at the bargain bin this offseason. Adding Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss on low-risk/ high-reward deals could yield some positive results. But the fact remains that they're losing one of the best starters in the game with Framber Valdez's departure this offseason. If they really hope to compete, it's going to take more than shopping at the clearance rack in order return to the playoffs in 2026.

The trade market is Houston's best way to do that, but big-names like Freddy Peralta, Hunter Greene, and Tarik Skubal will be way outside the Astros' price range. Players like Kris Bubic of the Kansas City Royals, Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Luis Severino of the Athletics might be more in line with what Houston will be able to offer, but each comes with their own drawbacks.

Whatever the solution will be, the Astros better act fast. Merrill's new deal shows how much teams value starting pitching, and with every contract, the price keeps going up. The same holds true for the trade market, and with so few assets to deal, the Astros need to make a move before the new year begins.