Astros’ late 2025 season collapse was even more costly than fans may realize

Given how successful the Houston Astros have been in recent years, it made it all the more painful to see the team collapse the way they did in 2025. No one team can rule a division forever and it would be one thing if the Mariners or Rangers simply played a bit better over the course of the season. However, after a trade deadline that looked far flashier than the results it actually produced, Houston gave away a prime opportunity for another playoff run and had no one to blame but themselves.

Sure, there were things outside their control that cost the Astros dearly. Injuries to players like Jake Meyers, Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, and a slew of pitchers would have been difficult to overcome for every team. However, there were also moves last offseason (looking at you, Christian Walker) and and at the trade deadline (looking at you, Jesus Sanchez) that didn't move the needle and arguably made the team worse.

However you choose to assign blame, the cost remains the same and that cost is higher than Astros fans may realize. Not only did Houston miss the postseason, but how they ended up fall short put them in one of the worst positions they could have when it comes to the MLB Draft.

Astros put themselves as team with worst MLB Draft Lottery odds with 2025 collapse

Draft position in baseball is largely dictated by where a team finishes in a given season. There is more nuance to it than that once you start thinking about competitive balance picks, compensatory picks, etc., but that is the gist. If you are picking low in each round and don't have much of a draft bonus pool, it is almost always because a team went to the postseason and probably performed well which is it's own reward. Where things have gotten a little weird was when MLB decided to combat tanking (which was admittedly a problem) by instituting the MLB Draft Lottery system a few years ago.

Basically, the way the draft lottery works is that there is a drawing for the top six picks in the draft with the odds for the top pick(s) being determined by where teams finished the previous season. Teams like the Rockies, Angels, and Nationals are not eligible for the lottery because teams, depending on their revenue sharing status, can't receive lottery picks too consecutively. In the Astros' case, they do technically have a chance at the first overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, but their 0.34% chance at the top pick is the lowest among all lottery-eligible teams this year. Oof.

If the odds bear out, the Astros will not only have missed the playoffs and the accolades (and revenue) that comes with that, but they will still be picking near the bottom of the first round and have one of the league's lowest draft bonus pools yet again. For an organization whose minor league depth was already highly questionable, that is a really rough spot to put oneself in.

Not all of the news for the Astros when it comes to the 2026 MLB Draft is bad. They do have a slight chance of getting a lottery pick which would be massive if Houston beats the odds and the Astros will be getting an extra draft pick after the fourth round if/when Framber Valdez signs elsewhere this offseason which does help the cause. These are the silver linings that the Astros have to hang their hats on now, because the position they played themselves into is pretty dire beyond those fringe hopes.