Astros’ last-minute arbitration deal with Isaac Paredes could foreshadow trade intentions

The Houston Astros may have just telegraphed their latest plans regarding the infield log jam and the payroll crunch with their latest Isaac Paredes decision. The trade talks with the Red Sox regarding Paredes have cooled, as there has been virtually no movement over the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, the Red Sox could be eyeing Cubs infielders Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw as better potential fits at second base, allowing Marcelo Mayer's stellar glove work to shine more at the hot corner.

Paredes and the Astros seemed destined for a standoff via an arbitration hearing. Paredes was seeking a $9.95 million payday, while Houston countered with $8.75 million. The $1.2 million gap was significant as the club sits an eyelash away from crossing the luxury tax line.

However, the two sides came to a last-minute agreement to avoid a hearing, and in doing so, it could tell us that a pivot is afoot.

Astros agreeing to a new contract with Isaac Paredes could remove him from the trade block

In terms of 2026 salary, the two sides split the difference, with Paredes now slated to make $9.35 million this season. The interesting thing is the deal also includes a $13.35 million option for 2027, which could convert to a mutual option with a top-10 MVP finish.

Why would the Astros come to an agreement with the 27-year-old if they intended to trade him? Why would they include an option that could lock in his salary for his final year of arbitration at a reasonable number if they didn't intend to keep him around? Why not let his prospective future team worry about these details?

The answer is that the team was never going to just give Paredes away for free. This isn't a Christian Walker situation, where they'll take whatever they can get just to liberate themselves from the contract. Although his season had a large chunk erased due to injury, Paredes was putting together a stellar year and is firmly in his prime. The club realizes that the two-time All-Star has tremendous value and isn't going to sacrifice that just to save a few bucks.

There's also the simple fact that they actually need him. Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve are uninsurable for the WBC because of their injury histories, and Correa's is particularly concerning. Walker struggling again would also create a serious black hole in the lineup. Paredes, then, is a valuable insurance policy.

With his versatility, he can log time at the hot corner, at second base, and at first, to gather a decent number of at-bats, while being able to step in at any of the three positions should injury or poor performance dictate. The Astros don't have anyone else, aside from the extremely light-hitting Nick Allen, who can do the same for them.

There's also the fact that they can still shed salary in other ways. Jake Meyers doesn't make as much, but there are far fewer center field options on the market than there are infield possibilities. That could allow him to fetch more. Add Jesus Sanchez to the trade mix, and between the two, Houston could clear as much salary as moving Paredes by himself.

The outfield depth is also overlooked here. Even if the Astros were to move Meyers and Sanchez, they still have youngsters Cam Smith and Zach Cole to step in, plus Altuve could get some run in left, while top prospect Brice Matthews is expected to have a chance to earn outfield reps as well.

All in all, this could signal that the market or Paredes is softer than the Astros thought, leading them to realize he provides them with more value than any potential cost savings and return package could.