Astros insider just hinted at Yordan Alvarez's biggest obstacle to current MVP push

There's an piece from The Athletic making the rounds that frames Yordan Alvarez as flat-out irreplaceable for the Houston Astros, even reaching for the Barry Bonds comparison to drive home just how singular this bat is. And the numbers back it up. When healthy, Alvarez is doing things almost nobody else in the sport can do right now.

That last part is the story, though, isn't it? When healthy. That little qualifier has been following Alvarez around like a shadow, and it's the one thing standing between him and what could be a genuine MVP season. It’s not the pitchers or the struggling team around him. It’s his own body.

Why Yordan Alvarez’s bat makes the MVP case obvious...as long as he can stay on the field

The results are the easy part. Through May 27, Alvarez is hitting a ridiculous .312/.422/.663 with a league-leading 20 home runs and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. That’s the kind of slash line that gets a player into MVP conversations no matter the team he plays for. And that’s good because even though they’ve been playing better lately, the Astros are still looking up at .500. 

But that doesn’t matter for his MVP case. He leads the team in wRC+ by a mile. We laid out the blueprint for him to win the award even on a bad team a few weeks ago, and the short version is that when you’re at the top of nearly every major offensive category, voters notice. The bat is not the problem. It never has been.

The uncomfortable twist is that Alvarez has already sat this season with back spasms, getting pulled mid-at bat against the Cubs in the sixth inning after feeling tightness earlier in the day. He told reporters he was lifting weights, felt his shoulder blade tighten up, and couldn’t raise his right arm much. He was pulled as a precaution, which was a smart move, but one that is all too familiar. 

We’ve seen the script before. Last year was a mess in terms of availability, with Alvarez playing just 48 games, starting with a right-hand fracture that was initially diagnosed as a muscle strain, somehow. That cost him nearly 100 games before a freak ankle sprain ended his September. He’s played 140 or more games just twice in the last four years, so this is absolutely a pattern. 

When that injury scare hit against the Cubs, it sure looked like the biggest fear was being realized, and the worry wasn’t losing only a few games. It was that the lineup turns into a pumpkin without him, which is exactly what happened last year.

The cruel math is that Alvarez is now primarily a designated hitter. Espada has made it clear that he wants the majority of those starts to come at DH to keep him upright. But a DH banks zero value with his glove. There’s no defensive WAR cushion, no Gold Glove-caliber innings to pad the resume on the days the bat goes quiet. Every ounce of his MVP case comes from plate appearances, and you can’t accumulate any from the trainer’s room.

A shortstop with a 135 wRC+ can have a legitimate MVP season with defense and baserunning adding value. And a DH with an OPS approaching 1.100 can do, but they need to be on the field. Miss 30 or 40 games and the counting stats dip, and the narrative shifts from MVP to “what could have been,” and a healthy outfielder jumps him in the voting. 

So the obstacle is clear, and what makes him so valuable to the Astros lineup is what makes him so fragile in the MVP race. He has to be in the lineup, pretty much every day, from now through the end of the season. The talent and the numbers are there, but his body has to cooperate, which nobody can promise or predict. If it does, he has a great shot to win the award. If it doesn’t, well, he’ll probably get a few votes and we’ll have the same conversation next season.

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