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The blueprint already exists for Yordan Alvarez to win MVP, even if the Astros are terrible

So you are saying there's a chance.
ByEric Cole|
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Apr 19, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) hits an infield single against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images
Apr 19, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) hits an infield single against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

By now, even the most ardent of Houston Astros fans are entertaining the idea that this might not be the Astros' year. The offense has (mostly) done its part, but both the Astros' rotation and the bullpen have collapsed under the weight of injuries and underperformance. There is still time to turn things around, certainly, but it is also fair to wonder what the future holds for Yordan Alvarez if Houston truly is this bad.

Alvarez has been playing out of his mind so far this season so far. If the Astros don't show some signs of life soon, you can bet everything in your wallet that contending teams are going to be sniffing around to see if Houston would trade him. The Astros probably shouldn't do that, but one possible unfortunate outcome from the Astros' increasingly dire outlook is that Alvarez's contributions could be overlooked.

However, that doesn't mean it is a certainty that Alvarez could have a great season and no one would notice in a world where the Astros are bad. In fact, there is already a blueprint in place, thanks to some familiar names, for Alvarez to actually win MVP if he keeps doing what he is doing.

Even if the Astros totally collapse (more), Yordan Alvarez has a path for AL MVP

Now, just because Alvarez has a chance at this thing does not mean there are not very real obstacles. Aside from the fact that there are going to be some voters that penalized players on losing teams, no matter how well they play, the fact that Alvarez is primarily a designated hitter doesn't help his case. If the numbers are close at the end of the season, those disadvantages could be tiebreakers.

However, Alvarez has been the best hitter in the AL by a mile so far this season. Through 23 games, Alvarez's 1.9 fWAR is a full half-WAR better than second-place Ben Rice. He currently leads all of baseball with 10 homers, and his 238 wRC+ ranks second behind Rice. If there is an offensive category that doesn't require speed, Alvarez is at or near the top of it despite a .279 BABIP so far in 2026.

Those are loud numbers, and if he can sustain anything close to that, Alvarez's odds go up considerably. While the Astros at least having a positive record would help his case, we have seen great players win end-of-season hardware. Paul Skenes won Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young over in the NL, playing for some truly brutal Pirates teams. Mike Trout won AL MVPs in 2016 and 2019, and those Angels teams were a combined 32 games below .500. Hell, a juiced-up Alex Rodriguez won AL MVP back in 2003 when he won his MVP with the Rangers, and they only won 71 games.

In short, Alvarez winning the MVP can happen if Houston crashes and burns this season, but only if he keeps playing really, really well. There are a number of names that could make things interesting, especially Aaron Judge, who hasn't really woken up yet this season. If Alvarez is clearly the best at the end of the season, Houston's fate should not impact his chances much at all. However, if it is close, Astros fans may want to brace for even more disappointment.

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