Astros fans should collectively raise their eyebrows as to who is on “bargain” free agent list

With a limited budget, the Houston Astros will certainly be shopping in the bargain bin to fill most of their holes this offseason. The club can probably afford one splash, probably coming in the form of another horse atop the starting rotation, but if they splash too much, they'll find themselves really scouring the discount aisle to solve the rest of their needs.

What exactly is a bargain, though? Is it all about a cheap price? Is it about extracting maximum value? Something else? The Athletic (subscription required) would have you thinking way outside of the box with their top "bargain" hitter this offseason. The player they chose is a familiar face around these parts, Alex Bregman.

Yup, that Alex Bregman. The guy who said $156 million of the Astros' money over six years was far too low. The fella who decided that six years, $171.5 million from the Detroit Tigers still wasn't enough. Yeah, that guy is poised to be a bargain after deciding to test the market just one year later and coming off a stronger season in 2025 than he had in 2024.

The Athletic has Astros fans laughing by calling Alex Bregman a free-agent bargain

The mental gymnastics here have to do with WAR, dollars per Win, skillsets, and aging curves. Essentially, Bregman's 3.5 WAR season (of which he missed a little more than a month and a half with a quad injury) is a strong enough starting point that he'll still provide surplus value over the life of a six-year contract that lands somewhere in the $171 million to $182 million range.

WAR is a useful stat, but it's not the end-all be-all, and there are some assumptions they're making here that may or may not come true.

First, there are the ideas about how Bregman's bat will age. The basis for things aging well is his high walk rate, low chase rate, and philosophy of only swinging at pitches he can do damage to. All well and good, except that Bregman's walk rate fell to a career-worst 6.9% in his final season in Houston, and while he rebounded in 2025, his 10.3% mark is still a long way off from his 11.8% career average.

As for doing damage on pitches, it's true that swinging at meatballs while spitting on pitches on the black is a recipe for success. However, Bregman's coming from a place of just average exit velocities and now entering his age-32 season, will surely see that decline further as his bat slows over the second half of this hypothetical contract.

The last point made had to do with his defensive value. Bregman's a good defender, but let's not pretend he's Brooks Robinson at the hot corner. In 2025, he posted just one defensive run saved and three outs above average in 972.1 innings of work. While he played 262.1 more innings in the field in 2024, his performance was markedly better with eight outs above average and six defensive runs saved, indicating that he might already be declining with the glove.

Bregman has had a history of leg injuries, and at a quick-twitch position like third, those can take a toll on reaction speeds over time. Defense is an important component of WAR, so if Bregman falls off, there's a real problem with the logic here.

All of this isn't to say that he's toast. On the contrary, he likely still has several good years left before the last couple of seasons of his new multi-year contract end poorly. Therefore, he could easily be worth such a lofty sum as the reported $171-$182 million, but to call him a bargain in the process is a stretch.