How much money did Alex Bregman cost himself declining Astros offer?

Alex Bregman is a polarizing free agent, for a number of reasons. For one, he's been an exceptional hitter during his career, providing elite plate discipline, enough power, and strong defense at third base. However, he's entering his age-31 season and there's real risk that a long-term deal will go south more quickly than most teams would like.

Despite the downside risk, the Astros were reported to have offered Bregman a substantial contract to stay in Houston. It was reported that the Astros offered Bregman 6 years and $156 million to stick around through the end of his age 36 season. Bregman turned the offer down, with at least one reason being that he thought he could get more than 6 years elsewhere on the free agent market.

However, with under a month to go before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, Bregman remains on the market and there's little news being reported about his potential suitors being willing to go above 6 years, or to offer him nearly $200 million, as was suggested by Brian McTaggart earlier this winter.

The Astros certainly weren't willing to meet that asking price, and having acquired Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade have more than likely filled their third base requirement heading into the 2025 season.

Alex Bregman's decision to turn down a long-term contract offer from the Astros is going to cost him dearly

For now, there are three teams reportedly still in on Bregman at this point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, and Blue Jays have all been in contact with him and his agent Scott Boras about a potential deal. Boras did recently come out and state that Bregman is unwilling to consider a short-term deal at this time, which will absolutely limit his options in free agency.

Of those three teams, the Blue Jays would seemingly have the most money to offer, given their interest in some top free agents of late. But the Tigers and Red Sox both have the payroll space to make a deal happen. However, despite Boras' insistence that there is "substantial interest in long-term deals", there's almost no chance that Bregman is getting the kind of money he's looking for in those offers. If he was, it feels certain that he'd have already signed.

So what does that mean for the soon to be 31 year old? Well, it's evident that most predictions think his value is in the $25 million range in terms of AAV. That's what Houston offered, and that's roughly what MLB Trade Rumors guessed in their off-season predictions column. If Bregman isn't getting what he wants, that could mean teams are starting in the 4 year range, which would put it around $100 million total.

If the righty changes his mind and becomes open to a short-term contract, he might see an AAV bump but wouldn't come close to the total dollar amount the Astros offered. In that case, the difference could be upwards of $50 million or more. But if Bregman is set on holding out for a deal in the range of 7 years and $200 million, he's probably going to be waiting around for a while.