Astros could break the offseason open with this blockbuster trade

At the center of the Houston Astros' offseason is the fact that they will have to find a way to replace Framber Valdez. It's not the strongest free agent class for starting pitchers, with Valdez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Ranger Suarez all at the top of the market. Each is a strong option and could easily slot at the top of any rotation, but has varying degrees of red flags that create some risk.

For a team like the Astros, the risk is magnified by the fact that they don't really have the room to offer up a lucrative long-term deal for a starting pitcher. Even when they had space, it was not something they preferred to do. Short of Valdez's market bottoming out, it feels like the Astros will need to address their need for a starting pitcher through the trade market.

This certainly is shaping up to be the offseason for a team with a preference for trading for a starting pitcher. Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Hunter Greene, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Sandy Alcantara are among the ace-caliber pitchers who could be moved this offseason.

Trading for Sonny Gray could completely change the Astros’ offseason

We're not going to lie, the Astros aren't in an ideal position here. The Astros can easily afford the $8MM that Peralta is set to earn in 2026, but don't have the prospect capital to make the deal. Similarly, that likely rules the Astros out of the bidding for Greene and Ryan.

The guess here is that the Astros will try to strike quickly to address their need in the rotation. Expecting them to land a controllable ace doesn't feel likely, but perhaps one of Gray or Mitch Keller of the Pirates makes the most sense.

In Gray's case, the St. Louis Cardinals are shifting toward a younger core, and Gray is believed to be willing to waive his no-trade clause this offseason. Gray carries a hefty price tag for 2026, $35MM, but depending on the luxury tax calculations for the 2025 season and a potential creative trade of Christian Walkers, the Astros could fit that in.

If not Gray, then another pitcher that is in the tier below the group of aces available on the trade market. Regardless, the Astros likely will want to make their move before their targets are pursued by teams looking for fallback options. That could see the Astros making a noteworthy move before the Winter Meetings in December.