Astros’ biggest 2026 question could define Dana Brown’s future

Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown wasn't exactly given a ringing endorsement this offseason. The Astros confirmed that Brown (and manager Joe Espada) were under contract for the 2026 season, but it sounds like Jim Crane isn't in a rush to get a contract extension done with his top baseball executive. It would seem that the Astros' making the playoffs in 2026 is how Brown can keep his job, and that may have been tied to his biggest offseason decision.

Even though Framber Valdez's market was never as strong as it was expected to be at the start of the offseason, the Astros never entertained a reunion with their former ace. Instead, the Astros took a creative gamble, signing Tatsuya Imai to a three-year deal that includes opt-outs and escalators.

By the end of the 2026 season, the Astros need to know whether or not Imai is a suitable replacement for Valdez.

Tatsuya Imai gamble could be what defines Dana Brown's future with the Astros

Barring a trade of Isaac Paredes or Christian Walker, the biggest move the Astros made this offseason was signing Imai. The problem, however, is that Imai isn't exactly a sure thing at the top of Houston's rotation.

Questions about Imai's profile are what opened the door for the Astros to sign him to a short-term deal that fit within their payroll constraints.

If the gamble pays off, and Imai does become the top-of-the-rotation pitcher who can slot next to Hunter Brown, that could go a long way toward Houston being a contender in 2026. It would give them a formidable top of the rotation, and silence the fears that have surrounded the Astros' pitching staff for most of the offseason.

On the other side of the coin, if Imai turns out to be a bust, that could seal Brown's fate with the Astros. It would mark the second consecutive season where his big offseason addition didn't live up to expectations, and it would be hard to map out the Astros' return to the playoffs.

When the expectation was that Valdez would land a deal that approached $200 million, no one faulted the Astros for taking a swing at Imai. They took advantage of a diminished market, and if it works, they have an affordable ace for the next three years. But if it doesn't work, and Valdez thrives while on a short-term deal with the Detroit Tigers, Brown may not be able to talk his way out of that mistake.