Astros' 2026 draft strategy is becoming clear after latest Baseball America mock draft

We are mere days away from the 2026 MLB Draft, and Baseball America released their sixth mock draft of the season this week. With the 17th pick, he has the Houston Astros selecting Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron. As we all know, the Astros also have the 28th pick, and he predicts the pick will be Texas Tech outfielder Logan Hughes.

Neither name should be a shock if you’ve followed the process. There’s a pattern forming here: whatever quality college hitter is there when the Astros pick, at least early, will be the guy they take. There are worse thought processes.

Astros' draft board keeps pointing toward college bats over upside plays

Collazo’s reasoning is pretty easy to figure:

“I’ve heard a lot more college hitting with the Astros in recent days, so the top available options like Justin Lebron, AJ Gracia, and Sawyer Strosnider could all make sense.”

If this is true, and the Baseball America guys are obviously plugged in, it’s an admission that Houston’s board at 17 (and 28) is stacked with a bunch of similarly-graded college bats, and the front office is comfortable letting the board come to them rather than reaching for any one specific profile.

Lebron is easy to like, even if he isn’t a top-10 talent. He’s been a three-year starter at Alabama, which is noteworthy. His hit tool draws a little hedging, but his speed, arm strength, and overall defense all grade out well. His junior numbers have dipped to the point that he has dropped in rankings from the top of the draft to a point where he could be an option at 17. But he’s still done some really interesting things. He was 41 for 42 in stolen base attempts, showed good power, and, again, is good enough defensively to stick at shortstop. 

A team picking purely for talent takes the name graded highest on its board. Now, it could be that Lebron is simply graded higher than anyone else on their board when they get there. But there is some fear that they’d be making this selection for organizational need and taking the safest profile in a player who can replace their current shortstop when he leaves for free agency. Everything about Houston’s process points to the organizational need angle. 

That was the same logic we made when we made the case for Gracia from Virginia a few weeks ago. The argument was, and still is, that the Astros need to prioritize fast-moving, high-floor college bats over someone who might take a bit longer because the system has no solutions right now. He’s obviously mentioned in Collazo’s projection, along with Strosnider from TCU, which suggests the list for 17 might actually be five or six players deep and all college hitters. The eventual name will be determined by whoever is still available.

None of this happens by accident. The Astros haven’t taken a pitcher in the first round since they took J.B. Bakauskas in 2017. An eight-year sample doesn’t necessarily mean anything about a ninth, but it’s also a long time to be selecting hitters. In fact, they’ve selected a college hitter in the first round with five of their last six picks. They, of course, didn’t have a first-round pick in 2020 or 2021. Dana Brown’s front office has preferred to find its pitching depth later or through other means, and they’ve spent premium draft capital on position players. Given a farm system that entered the season ranked toward the bottom of baseball, the appetite for a boom-or-bust prep arm was probably not exactly there.

Some earlier mocks have floated Liam Peterson as the pick, but even he might be considered the safe bet as a college pitcher. They’ve since moved off that to go back to the college bats, another sign that the front office is leaning toward something a little safer within its college-bat lane.

There is a bit of a wild card this year. Astros director of amateur scouting Cam Pendino has said the team jumped from dead last in combined draft-pool money over the previous two years to 11th overall this year, with a $13,712,700 bonus pool. That’s the most money they’ve had since 2015, when they drafted Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. The extra pick at 28, a Prospect Promotion Incentive bonus for Hunter Brown’s third-place Cy Young finish, gives Houston two bites at a college bat instead of one. That spending power is expected to allow them to get a little more creative down the board. 

It’s easy to see what’s happening here. Houston isn’t hunting for one specific tool or a ceiling at 17. It’s looking for the best college performer on the board and then repeating that exercise 11 picks later. It’s a strategy built pretty well for a system that needs players who can move quickly, not lottery tickets who might. Whether it’s Lebron, Gracia, Strosnider, or someone else, the approach does appear to be locked in, even if the name changes every week.

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