Astros 2026 arbitration projections could trigger some painful roster cuts

MLB Trade Rumors just released their arbitration projections for the 2026 season, and the Houston Astros are going to have some difficult decisions to make in the coming weeks in order to keep their payroll manageable heading into next year.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Astros are likely to spend $66.7 million on their 16 arbitration eligible players this offseason. That's quite the bill when you consider that Houston is already paying $101 million to the quartet of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, and Carlos Correa.

Christian Javier is set to receive a major pay bump in 2026 — from $10.4 million to $21.4 million — and when combined with Lance McCullers Jr. and Josh Hader, Houston is set to hand over a grand total of $160 million to the aforementioned seven players. That's would equate to little over 72% of last year's $222 million payroll. Yikes!

There's no way the Astros are going to keep all 16 arbitration-eligible players heading into the offseason, and just trimming around the fringes isn't going to cut it. Non-tendering the likes of Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell is easy. But these projections suggest that players like Mauricio Dubón, Jesús Sánchez, and even Luis Garcia could be on the chopping block next month.

Astros 2026 arbitration projections could force Houston to cut players like Mauricio Dubón, Jesús Sáchez, and others

Some Astros fans are sure to recoil at the thought of dumping Dubón and others, but it's the painful reality that GM Dana Brown and the Houston front office face this offseason. Dubón is estimated to take home nearly $6 million through arbitration, while Sánchez is assumed to make $6.5 million. Throw in Garcia's projected $2.2 million salary for 2026, and that's nearly $15 million Houston could save with those three cuts alone.

Trade deadline pickup Ramon Urias could be a roster casualty at the non-tender deadline next month, and Brown and Co. will undoubtedly have some long talks about players like Jake Meyers, ($3.5 million) and Hayden Wesneski ($1.5 million) as well.

Bryan Abreu, Jeremy Peña, Hunter Brown, Isaac Paredes, Yainer Diaz are slam dunks to have contracts tendered in the coming weeks, but the remaining 11 set to go through arbitration aren't so fortunate. Those five standouts are expected to increase Houston's payroll by more than $33 million, and that's not chump change.

Some Astros fans are sure to advocate for Houston's front office to trade Walker and McCullers this offseason in order to lessen the payroll burden, but that's easier said than done. It's take two to pull off a trade, and Houston would surely have to absorb a good amount of salary in order to deal either one of those players.

Tough choices will need to be made before the non-tender deadline, and some trades could even be on the table. Players like Dubón and Garcia could look to negotiate a team-friendly deal in order to stick around next season, but if they plan to go through the arbitration process, they could be wearing a different uniform in 2026.