Astros’ 2025 free agency outlook will make fans uneasy about the future

After a disappointing end to the 2025 season, the offseason and free agency should represent an opportunity for the Houston Astros to right the wrongs with the team and come into 2026 stronger than before. At least, that's what fans hope.

The reality of the situation might be much different. While we often focus on the big names who could be added, sometimes it's the departures that matter most. That could be a lot of money being freed up with aging and unproductive players coming off the roster, or it could mean the prospect of losing a key component of what had previously made a club successful.

With only three free agents hitting the market, Framber Valdez, Victor Caratini, and Brendan Rodgers, the Astros fall into the latter category, and it could mean not much will change with the roster going forward.

Astros' free agency outlook isn't what fans might hope for

If we know anything about the Astros under owner Jim Crane in recent years, the luxury tax is a line in the sand he will not cross. That means, even with $26.8 million coming off the books, the club will have only $11 million to work with before hitting the tax line. Some simple moves could free up an additional $15.7 million, but even so, it won't give the team much to work with.

And with that, the Astros have some key needs to fill. An argument could be made that they could use four new starting pitchers, but with limited funds, that won't happen. One new face in the rotation is a must, however, and two would be ideal. The team could also use some help in the outfield, on the bench, and another arm or two in the bullpen is never a bad thing. Fitting all that in will be a challenge, however.

Framber Valdez is the name everyone would love to see back, but he'll be regarded as the top free-agent starter, and while a record-setting deal like the one the New York Yankees gave to Max Fried last winter might not be in the cards, he'll be paid handsomely.

Spotrac projects a six-year, $199.9 million deal for Valdez, and while that might seem a touch high, it will be in that ballpark. Such a deal would carry a $33.3 million average annual value that wouldn't fit in Houston's budget even with some cuts.

Moving on, Brendan Rodgers was all but forgotten by the end of the season. 43 games and a 55 wRC+ close the door on any potential reunion.

The only internal free agent with a realistic chance to re-sign is Victor Caratini. As a backup catcher and part-time first baseman and DH, Caratini's two seasons in Houston have been productive with a 113 wRC+ in 2024 and a 104 mark in 2025. Defensively behind the plate, he's just okay, but you could do worse, especially once you factor in his offensive contributions.

At 32, Caratini won't be looking at a long-term deal for crazy money, but his price will matter to Houston. Spotrac pegs him at one year, $2.3 million, which seems low. Caratini made $6 million last year, though a pay cut isn't out of the realm of possibility. Anything beyond $6 million, though, and the club might just pivot to César Salazar as the Yainer Diaz's primary backup.

With so many bloated contracts already on the ledger, Houston will be looking for internal improvements on multiple fronts to put them in a stronger position in 2026. You can already see the writing on the wall after the flurry of coaching staff changes and a new head trainer. The Astros will be banking on a new approach and some much-improved luck in the injury department.

That won't be all, though. Young players will be tasked with stepping up. The Astros will expect more from Cam Smith in year two and will also call upon promising youngsters like Zach Cole, Jacob Melton, AJ Blublaugh, and Brice Matthews to potentially fill some key roles.

That doesn't mean they'll be completely inactive in free agency. A move for a veteran starter will likely happen, though the caliber of said arm is hard to determine at this time. There will also be some depth signings, but don't expect much more than that.

If you thought the Astros' free-agency period last winter was relatively dormant beyond the Christian Walker signing, well, prepare yourself for more of the same this winter.