AL West rival’s 2026 projections are a wake-up call for Astros and their lack of urgency

After missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade, the Houston Astros began the offseason with a lot of questions to answer. The aging and expensive roster had several holes that needed to be filled if they were to return to contention in 2026, and the upside-down nature of many of their veteran contracts made it impossible to change course and begin a rebuild. Throw in some self-imposed payroll restrictions, and the Astros had a tough needle to thread this winter.

Now with spring training upon us and the major moves already in the books, the question is, did the Astros do enough to truly contend? The projections from FanGraphs don't think so, as they have the Seattle Mariners running away with the division title.

FanGraphs projected AL West Standings have the Astros falling way behind the Mariners due to their lack of urgency

According to FanGraphs, Seattle has a 59.5% chance of winning the division and a 78% chance of making the playoffs. Houston is projected to finish second in the AL West, with just a 16.3% shot at taking home the division crown and a 38.1% of making the playoffs. In short, it's more than likely that the Astros are yet again sitting home come October.

Looking around the league, it might be division or bust should Houston really want to make the playoffs. The loaded AL East has four teams who are projected to have a 53.6% shot or better to make the postseason, and even in the weak AL Central, the Tigers are the clear favorite to win the division, with the second-place Royals owning a 39% chance of a playoff appearance, just edging out the Astros.

The biggest hole Houston had to fix was in the starting rotation. Framber Valdez is a big loss, but also a big reason why the Tigers vaulted up in the AL Central predictions. The Astros have several answers that they added, and truth be told, more than one starter was needed, but they all present more questions than answers at this point in time.

Tatsuya Imai has tantalizing potential, but his market cratering should temper expectations as he adjusts to MLB competition. Mike Burrows is enticing, but he's yet to throw 100 total big league innings. Ryan Weiss is a complete wild card, and Nate Pearson is a low-probability dart throw. Is the rotation better, the same, or worse than last year? No one can truly say.

While Houston at least addressed the rotation, the club did very little to rectify other pressing roster issues. They've failed to add a competent left-handed bat, putting additional pressure on last year's trade deadline bust, Jesus Sanchez, to find his groove. Even if he does, they still could've used another reinforcement from the left side.

Another issue is the depth. Injuries ravaged the club last season, and while they've made significant changes on the training staff, it doesn't change the fact that this is an old roster littered with players who have lengthy injury histories.

Backup catcher hasn't been addressed, and the infield has both a logjam and a lack of depth, given Nick Allen's weakness at the plate.

Overall, things could go awry very easily for a variety of reasons. For much of the offseason, Houston was dormant, missing out on the opportunity to set the market rather than react to it. Given that, it seems as if much of what they needed got away from them, leading to questionable fixes and deficiencies left unaddressed.