3 Astros who should be given contract extensions, 3 who should not

The Houston Astros are no strangers to tough decisions when it comes to contract extensions to lock up their homegrown talent long term. For every Jose Altuve, there's a Carlos Correa, and for every Yordan Alvarez, there's a Kyle Tucker.

Such is life for a club that sees the luxury tax line as an impenetrable barrier. Houston will spend, to a point, but they will also be judicious in how they allocate funds to lock up their own youngsters long-term. The recent strategy of competing while injecting the roster with youth makes that balancing act even more delicate these days.

As it stands, the Astros have a number of players under team control who could warrant extensions. This would benefit the Astros by keeping costs controlled, while also buying out a couple of free-agent years to keep a pivotal player around for the foreseeable future. It also benefits the player by giving him some sense of financial security, even if it comes at the cost of potential top-of-the-market dollars in the future. But just because there are several on the roster who could be considered extension candidates doesn't mean that the team would be wise to extend all of them.

These three Astros have earned their extensions, and the club would be wise to lock them up sooner rather than later

Hunter Brown - SP

Hunter Brown doesn't begin the arbitration process until the offseason, meaning the Astros have three more years of control over the emerging ace, which might make one think they could wait on an extension. That would be foolish for a couple of reasons, however.

Firstly, Brown has emerged as a true Cy Young candidate and legitimate ace, something that does not grow on trees. After a hiccup in July when he posted a 5.54 ERA, he has assuaged any concerns that his first half was a mirage or that he was running out of gas with a 1.89 ERA in August thus far. Simply put, Brown is the real deal.

Secondly, the Astros need not look very far to see the detrimental effects of waiting to lavish a top-flight starter with an extension. The club watched lefty Framber Valdez dazzle for years without making headway in locking him up long-term. As a result, he was awarded a hefty $18 million salary this year in his final season of arbitration and is set to test the market in the offseason, where it's basically a guarantee that he'll price himself out of Houston's budget. The Astros can't afford to make the same mistake twice.

Jeremy Peña - SS

The leaps and bounds Jeremy Peña has made in his breakout season cannot be overstated. Over his first three years, he was a roughly league-average bat with average contact and pop and a superb glove at shortstop.

Now, he's posting exceptional contact numbers while tapping into power enough to make him more than a one-trick pony. Shortstops that play good defense and post 140 wRC+ are legitimate MVP candidates, and while Peña won't take home that honor this year with the seasons that Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge are putting together, he may have the trophy in his future if he keeps it up.

The Astros were smart in recognizing this, getting close to an extension with the 27-year-old earlier this season before he switched agents and teamed up with Scott Boras. Boras's involvement now makes this much tougher sledding, but coming to a deal isn't impossible and the Astros would be wise to do everything in their power to bring it to fruition.

Cam Smith - OF

Some might say that the jury is still out on Cam Smith, who earlier in the season appeared to be breaking out but has since gone into a prolonged slump and is hitting just .165 in the second half.

Still, it's important to remember that Smith is just 22, was the jewel of the Kyle Tucker trade, and has been adjusting to learning a new position on the fly. All of that, and he's only had 32 games of minor league seasoning, with just five coming above Hi-A. Some struggles should be expected, then, but it doesn't change the future outlook for the budding youngster.

To that end, Houston would be wise to lock him up early before he becomes the player they know he can be. Taking a page out of the Boston Red Sox book, as the Astros' AL rivals handed extensions to two of their top prospects during their debut seasons, could save Houston a ton of money down the road if and when Smith reaches his full potential.

These three Astros haven't earned extensions (yet)

Yainer Diaz - C

In 2023 and especially 2024, Yainer Diaz looked like an emerging star in the batter's box, although his defensive performance left something to be desired. Still, a catcher who can mash even if he's not a great defender is a valuable asset.

However, Diaz has always had a flaw in his game. The 26-year-old is hyper-aggressive at the plate, leading to not only putrid walk rates, but also a tendency to chase way too often outside of the strike zone. That hasn't manifested in an overabundance of strikeouts, but with a 92 wRC+ on the season, opposing pitchers have generated a decent amount of weak contact while throwing him junk outside of the zone.

It doesn't appear that Diaz will overcome this flaw, and as a result, it may end up being fatal. Meanwhile, Houston has last year's first-round pick, Walker Janek, finding his groove at Hi-A Asheville, hitting .260/.334/.446 this season. Janek is still a few years away, which will give Houston time to decide whether they truly believe in Diaz to continue improving, or decide to move on in favor of the highly-regarded prospect.

Isaac Paredes - 3B

Prior to his unfortunate injury, Isaac Paredes seemed like a legitimate extension candidate following his All-Star selection. Since then, things have become much more complicated.

First, the deadline acquisition of Carlos Correa to play third base, a move necessitated by Paredes' injury, makes the infield picture very crowded once the former Chicago Cub returns to action. Further complicating matters will be the eventual ascension (for good) of top prospect Brice Matthews, while the Astros will also have to stomach two more years of Christian Walker at first base.

Correa has three more years left on his deal after this season, before a series of options, meaning this log jam at the hot corner won't resolve itself any time soon. Furthermore, if things go as the Astros hope, their 2025 first-rounder, teenager Xavier Neyens' power bat will blossom and add another name to the hat in a few years.

All the while, Paredes might be a picture-perfect fit for the Crawford Boxes, but he has yet to address his flaw of pulling low-exit velocity flyballs that likely don't land in the seats in many other stadiums. At the end of the day, Paredes is likely a good-not-great player, and with a logjam brewing, he isn't worthy of an extension.

Outfielder Jesus Sanchez

There's a lot to like about the underlying data in Jesus Sanchez's game. The trade deadline addition has immense strength that translates to exceptional bat speed and exit velocities that theoretically should make him a very dangerous hitter.

With that said, those intriguing traits have translated to only average production as the 27-year-old carries a career 99 wRC+ over parts of six big league seasons.

Houston can't pay everyone, and unless Sanchez proves he can tap into his tools and elevate his performance, he won't prove irreplaceable. If the Astros do lock up Smith to play right field and eventually get the performance they hope for from top prospect Jacob Melton, there might not be room for Sanchez anyway.