3 Astros drafts picks under Dana Brown that were great, 3 that set Houston back

Dana Brown was hired by the Houston Astros on January 26, 2023, which means he’s now run three drafts with the fourth coming this year. The early returns are pretty much what you’d expect when picking in the high-20s and generally spending the biggest money on college performers rather than premium high school upside.

There’s some real value, some real head-scratchers, and almost nothing that’s actually reached Houston yet, because that’s the nature of judging draft classes this quickly. Still, three years in, some patterns are forming.

3 Astros draft picks that Dana Brown got right

Start with the best prospect they’ve drafted in Xavier Neyens. He was last year’s first-rounder and the first high schooler selected in the first round by the Astros since Forrest Whitley in 2016. He’s not hitting for a great average in Single-A Fayetteville, but the underlying skills are very clearly there. He has elite raw power, a walk rate that is absurdly good, and some of the best average exit velocity in the entire level. It all starts with his plate discipline, a skill that tends to age well, even if batting average lags behind a bit.

You have to go deep into the 2023 draft for two more big wins. The first is Ethan Pecko, a sixth-rounder who signed for just under $250,000. He was just named Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Month for June by going 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA in four starts. He walked just six and struck out 20, leading PCL pitchers in ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average while pitching big innings to tie for the league lead. He’s firmly in the mix for a rotation look at the big league level.

Even deeper in the 2023 draft was Jackson Nezuh, selected in the 14th round from Louisiana-Lafayette. Pitching at AA Corpus Christi, Nezuh has struck out 80 batters in 65.2 innings after striking out 105 in 120.1 innings in 2024 and 105 in 81.2 innings last year. Multiple outside draft evaluators have lauded the Astros for this pick, and he is one of the few prospects in the Astros system to get strong praise as a potential future big leaguer because of his swing-and-miss stuff.

3 Astros draft picks that might keep Dana Brown up at night

Brice Matthews is a tough one to swallow, but a lot of that is what he could have been. He was taken 28th overall in the 2023 draft out of Nebraska and has had his moments, but it’s tough to look at him and not call this pick a miss, given what Kevin McGonigle is doing. McGonigle was taken nine picks later and is going to get MVP votes in his rookie year. Matthews, meanwhile, has spent the year hovering around .200 with flashes of power, but nothing consistent. He’s still young enough to figure it out, but the shine has absolutely worn off. It’s not totally fair to compare to what was taken later, but that’s the nature of the beast.

Ryan Forcucci was supposed to be the calculated gamble of the 2024 draft class. He was considered a potential first-rounder out of UC San Diego before his elbow gave out in March of that year. The Astros still took him in the third round, and paid him over slot at nearly $1 million, even though they knew he might not throw a pitch until 2026. And he didn’t. April was ugly for him with seven walks and five strikeouts, but it’s been his best month so far. The sample is small, with just three games each in April and May, and one in June and one so far in July, but overall, he has a 13.89 ERA in 11.2 innings with 18 runs on 11 hits allowed and eight strikeouts to a ridiculous 25 walks. Yikes.

The disappointment tour concludes with Alonzo Tredwell, the 2023 second-rounder who was supposed to be the best hope from the early rounds other than Matthews. But between a college back injury, a prior Tommy John surgery, and now a shoulder issue that’s taken him out for 2026, he’s thrown 157 professional innings in what will be three and a half years after this season. His talent is still there, or at least it was when we last saw him, but his health is not cooperating.

The truth is that these lists can flip quickly. Most of these guys are young enough to change the story with a few months of good baseball. Just look at how quickly Neyens has climbed or how fast someone like Walker Janek’s stock has dropped this year alone. But Brown’s track record with his own first-round picks is a mixed bag so far. That’s probably the fairest way to describe the track record. There are some gems, but some prominent misses, and a whole lot left to be determined.

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