Astros: CTH Staff’s Predictions on where Carlos Correa will sign

After receiving a qualifying offer, it was obvious Carlos Correa would decline the $18.4 million for the 2022 season from the Houston Astros and explore free agency. Even before the season ended, it was evident that Correa would be the highest sought out shortstop this winter.

The Astros’ most recent offer was a five-year, $160 million deal, as reported by Mark Berman of Fox 26. This offers an annual average value (AAV) of $32 million, which might be the ballpark Correa shoots for, but the issue remains on the length of the contract.

Correa has been rumored in talks with teams like the Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees, and while you can anticipate many other teams in the mix, there have been little-to-no reports on what teams are offering the two-time All-Star.

After winning the Platinum Glove for the American League and finishing fifth in American League Most Valuable Player voting, Correa certainly has a resume for a large contract, but it all comes down to whether the Astros pony up on a longer deal or Correa takes a discount on the years for a slightly larger AAV.

Carlos Correa could be the highest paid shortstop in baseball, once it is all said and done, but what team will that be with?

Paul Conlon

The way things are, I just don’t see Correa winding up a Dodger—there’s just too much tension there with him and that roster in its current form from an organizational behavior standpoint.

However, in Anaheim, it may be a different story, where Correa’s arm could complement Mike Trout’s relay throws to get those critical outfield assists that save runs—which Trout might especially appreciate because it could help augment his wins above replacement (WAR) value as a center fielder.

Also, the Angels’ roster has arguably underperformed, and may be the closest in the American League West to righting ship if they deliver more effective pitching.

Chicago, like Los Angeles, is a two-team market that has a track record of spending big. But the White Sox are probably content with Tim Anderson at shortstop. Meanwhile, the Cubs situation remains a little murkier.

Correa could wind up suiting up for home games at Wrigley Field, but it also comes down to which team Javier Báez plays for in 2022. And affecting the bidding war for Correa’s services, it comes down to not only where Báez goes, but what position he will accept playing. In theory, Báez and Correa could both be infielders on the same team in 2022 provided one was okay with not playing shortstop.

With the Yankees’ situation, it’s difficult to say how well Correa would fit in the clubhouse. But in Queens, the Mets seem like a frontrunner to dole out the mega contract. However, Báez hit .299 in 47 games for the Mets after leaving the Cubs, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they do everything they can to keep Báez playing home games at Citi Field.

And then there appears to be a healthy congeniality and positive rapport between Tigers manager, AJ Hinch, and Correa—as evidenced by the two recently being spotted together for breakfast.

I imagine the decision does come down to if Correa demands to win now wherever he goes. And seeing as how the Astros having reached the American League Championship Series in five consecutive seasons, I’d give the Astros a 25 percent chance of landing the deal, but it would have to be a bombshell contract that may mortgage the future.

However, it might not be unheard of for Houston to finally take that jump into big market spending as the nation’s fourth most populated city and fifth most populated metropolitan statistical area.

Carlos Correa could just re-sign with the Houston Astros.

Zach Hablinski

Correa wants his money. He feels like he has earned it, and he has a great argument for it. Teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets will offer him 10 or more years with totals over $300 million.

But, the Astros have to ask themselves whether that kind of contract is really worth what you’re getting. Correa is a superstar, but no superstar has lasted in his prime through a 10-year contract.

Correa is 27-years-old, so a seven-year contract around $280 million is what he deserves and is what the Astros should offer him. It makes sense as owner Jim Crane seems to be okay with offering him a huge deal, but looking at the history of contracts offered by the Astros, I don’t see Crane offering anything longer than that.

The Astros should sell him on the fact that even though it’s three less years than what he could get, he is the captain of Houston, and he has unfinished business.

This unfinished business is why he will not wind up with the new York Yankees or the Los Angeles Dodgers. Even if they offer him, I don’t think Correa has it in his heart to play for either of those teams, even though they are over the luxury tax threshold and are willing to offer him whatever he wants.

This is especially true with the Yankees, after his recent comments on their beloved Derek Jeter.

The only option I see in this scenario are the Phillies, the Mets or the Tigers. The Tigers make the most sense of the three as he would have a reunion with AJ Hinch, with a solid young core around him. The Tigers will probably offer him 10 years, $300 Million, but I think it’s 50/50 whether he takes it over staying put. I can see either happening but I think Correa stays an Astro after this offseason.

Prediction: 7 years, $280 million with the Astros

Carlos Correa could stay in the American League West but with the Mariners.

Christian Espinoza

Astros’ fans, let’s just start getting used to seeing Trevor Story or Marcus Semien manning shortstop for Houston this next season. The Astros are reportedly interested in bringing in elite talent at the shortstop position while maintaining their long-term competitiveness.

I am interpreting that as the Astros are simply not interested in taking on the type of contract that Carlos Correa will command at the expense of future financial flexibility.

So, where does that leave Correa? Let’s take a look at the Seattle Mariners. Those who follow the baseball team from the Pacific Northwest know that they aren’t particularly well-known for making massive splashes in free agency in recent years.

However, the Mariners desperately need major league talent with postseason experience. The Mariners are well-coached, have a pretty solid core of young players and were still in postseason contention.

They do have a pretty solid defensive shortstop, J.P. Crawford, already. It is not completely inconceivable for a team to ask Correa if he’s willing to move to third base, where there is a vacancy due to Kyle Seager’s contract expiring. If anyone could make the move, it would be the 2021 Platinum and Gold Glove Winner, Correa.

Prediction: 10 years, $330 million with the Mariners

The Cardinals are accustomed to the name ‘Correa,’ but they could add a different one to their already elite defense.

Brian Dunleavy

With the hullabaloo surrounding Correa’s next stop, I can’t help but be a homer and root for him staying with the Astros. The Astros could cobble together a deal that might get close to the asking price for the best shortstop in baseball, and his teammates could help seal the deal however he won’t be getting the price he is asking.

The Astros could get together a five-year deal worth $190 million, but the issue is he will and can get more from another contender. I do think he will sign with a contender because he is a gamer, and I don’t think he could possibly sign with a bottom dwelling team for the most money. He wouldn’t be happy.

If the Astros can’t convince him to stay, I think one of the next logical contenders would be the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals could use a big bat to anchor their lineup and a really consistent shortstop and use their current shortstop for trade fodder to get another bat for the incoming DH next year.

The Cardinals have currently $25 million freed up from last year and could increase it, trading Paul DeJong’s $6 million. This gives them the ability to sign Correa to an eight-year, $275 million salary.

This would easily put the Cardinals in contention to get to the World Series, since they were just a few runs away from being able to advance. The Cardinals, with that signing, could have one of the best infields in baseball, if not the best.

Prediction: 8 years, $275 million salary with the Cardinals

Carlos Correa could join his former manager, A.J. Hinch, in Detroit.

Marty Coleman

Initially the Yankees and their endless millions seemed obvious. The flaw in that argument is the perception among Yankees’ fans and players that they were somehow cheated out of a championship in 2017.

Correa has grown into a leader and my assumption would be that he also wants to lead his next team, and I have difficulty seeing the Yankees, with all their childish in-game shenanigans, accepting Correa as a leader, not to mention Correa’s recent criticism of Jeter’s Gold Gloves.

The Rangers have money, but at 27-years-old, does Correa want to spend the prime years of his career building and battling to get out of last place?

That brings me to the Tigers, a team that’s likely ready to contend in a year or two, with a need, some money and a familiar face in the dugout.  Some believe the Tigers would rather spend on arms, but having manager A.J. Hinch in your corner can’t hurt when selling ownership on a huge contract.

The Tigers appear to be building towards a contender sooner rather than later, and giving Correa an opportunity to reap financial rewards, be a veteran leader and maybe contend for a title could happen.

Prediction: 8 years, $265 million with the Tigers

It could be painful to say, but the Yankees could put Carlos Correa in pinstripes.

Joe Fernandez

As of this writing, the Astros signed Justin Verlander to a $25 million deal with a player option for $25 million in 2023. Could this move influence Correa to stay and try and win one more World Series in Houston?

Or, does it prove the Astros are wanting to spend their money elsewhere and have moved on from their negotiations with Correa after their five year/$160 million offer?

It’s really hard to predict where he will land as there are five teams who have a chance to be competitive that also have the money and willingness to do the albatross eight to 12 year deal.

The Dodgers and the Angels are both always willing to spend big, and the Angels just finally came out from underneath their Albert Pujols deal. Are either willing to dole out yet another mega-deal to improve their chances at another World Series or a playoff appearance respectively?

The Yankees and Mets are two high-spending teams that seem to have no ceiling when it comes to how much money they’re willing to put out onto the field. Correa loves the spotlight so a big market like New York makes sense, plus he and Mets’ shortstop Lindor are Puerto Rico natives who would love to share a side of the infield together as they did playing for their homeland in the World Baseball Classic.

Then there’s the Tigers, who are an up and coming team in what is clearly the weakest division in the American League making a path to the playoffs easier. They have the financial flexibility to afford a big Miguel Cabrera-like deal and Correa has familiarity with Hinch as a manager.

The Tigers seem like the best fit in terms of ability to offer the years and money, having a manager Correa knows and is comfortable with, and the ability to become and remain competitive considering the division and the up and coming talent on the team.

That said, as painful as it is to say, I think he signs with the Yankees for a 10 year $300 million plus offer.  I hate to type that, but it’s where I think he will eventually end up since they can offer the years, the money, and most of all playing for the franchise that draws the most eyeballs in baseball.

The Yankees managers and front office (Aaron Boone, Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner) have all been posturing saying the past is the past and it will not factor into a decision whether to sign Correa or not, which means most likely they are going to make every effort to get him. I truly hope I’m wrong.

The only way the Astros have a chance to re-sign him is with a seven year deal in the $245-250 million range. Or who knows, maybe a one-year, $45 million deal to try and win it all one last time before re-testing free agency without so many talented shortstops available (I don’t think this will happen, but we can all dream.)

Prediction: 10 years, $300 million or more with the Yankees

Carlos Correa could stay in the American League West for years to come but with a different Texas team.

Kenny Van Doren

Everyone knows by now that Hinch and Correa were spotted together in Houston last week having breakfast. You can believe what you want, but the former Astros’ manager didn’t think their meeting was a big deal.

Hinch was Correa’s first major-league manager, and while he has had a player’s manager in Dusty Baker, who finished third in American League Manager of the Year voting in 2021, there is still a connection to him possibly signing in Detroit.

With all the news on the Tigers and the Yankees, I think Correa would likely sign with the Rangers over the two. Correa has his ring, and no matter how much people think it might not count, it still stands on his resume.

Correa would be the face of the Rangers, a thing he hasn’t been his entire career. Yes, he was the best player on the Astros in 2021, but there are other names on that team like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and others that can take some of the light away from him being the only superstar.

It is evident that Correa has earned himself a check this offseason, and while it would be painful to see him with the Rangers, they could meet some of his criteria.

The Rangers are a rebuilding organization with some top prospects and money to spend, but almost all of their positions are up for grabs and Correa would easily be their starting shortstop and face of the franchise for years to come.

Prediction: 8 years, $270 million with the Rangers

Although Correa was not selected to an All-MLB Team, his teammates from 2021, Yordan Alvarez (designated hitter) and Kyle Tucker (outfield), were both selected to All-MLB Second Team. It was Alvarez’s second selection, first coming in 2019, and it was Tucker’s first ever selection.

In other Correa news, more players have spoken out about his comments regarding Derek Jeter and his Gold Gloves. Jeter blew it off, while pitchers like Noah Syndergaard and Jered Weaver took offense to it.

Correa has also been active on social media, while singing “Quédate” by Kany Garcia. This translate to “Stay.” The post includes an Astros’ logo as well.